200%/year for an AVERAGE trader according to Acrary, still true?

[Free Thinker]

Quote from jones247:

John Arnold of Centarus is worth about $3 billion, although he's only 35 years old. He has a track record of triple digit returns (100% - 300%) per year for at least 4 out the last 7 years... and he manages a billion dollar hedge fund.

At least in theory it's probable for someone with a $200k account, given the successes of the John Arnolds and the Steve Cohens of the world. They were able to do it with multimillion dollars, growing it to multibillion dollars.

The truth, however, is that they are the exception, not the rule.

Walt

do you understand the difference between probable and possible?

 

[nitro]

It is very possible and probably using options skillfully, but I never liked the way these % returns are computed.

Quote from shortie:

yes, 200%/year that is a return expected from an average trader with <200K account according to Acrary. I can't find his post, but he indeed stated the above.

Acrary is a well respected trader and I believe he believed what he said a few years back. he does not post here any more maybe he has changed his mind.

After hearing many complaining about sub-par 2009 performance, I wonder if the above is still true. By an average trader I mean somebody who has been trading for a living for several years. Let's assume they have 200K account at a broker like IB, not at a prop firm. I have nothing against prop firms I just want to compare apple and apples. If you post the average profits at prop firms please state so clearly.

 

[Chad]

I'm more than happy with 30% per year. Even 20% is acceptable. With 15% I can still pay the rent.
Why in the world would would I risk losing all my capital by trying to make 200% per year.
Yes, it can be done. But its not worth the risk.
I have a suicide forex account that I use for high risk trades. I made >400% last year on that account. But that account is only 1% of my entire portfolio.

I would never risk my entire portfolio in an attempt to get high yields.

 

[jones247]

You're correct... I meant to say that in theory it's "POSSIBLE"... but such outcomes are truly RARE...

Quote from vhehn:

do you understand the difference between probable and possible?

 

[Free Thinker]

Quote from jones247:

You're correct... I meant to say that in theory it's "POSSIBLE"... but such outcomes are truly RARE...

i agree.

 

[Daal]

Quote from acrary:

Anyone could cobble together a handful of systems from Futures Truth and replicate these results

What about all the folks who will go broke when these systems stop working

 

[puretruth]

Quote from acrary:

I an average profitable trader shouldn't have trouble with the math of 200%+ profits before taxes and withdrawls.

On what are your numbers based ?

Do you work for a brokerage ?

 

[observer67]

Quote from shortie:

i am talking about small accounts <200K, not >100M hedge funds.

My forex manager manages about $80 million and he has paid profit of +39% for year 2009. In fact, he has been paying average profit of 3% per month for past 9 years.

 

[crash n burn]

Quote from observer67:

My forex manager manages about $80 million and he has paid profit of +39% for year 2009. In fact, he has been paying average profit of 3% per month for past 9 years.

although the figures presented are not entirely unrealistic, you have to understand that "my forex manager" is not a good example of reputable, audited track record that one would want to seriously discuss. i mean, madoff was paying for many years as well...

 

[riverstopper]

Start with 100 lots, 24 tics per day, increase size 20% each week. Results 100%+ after 4 weeks. Can make a lot more with more tics per day or more leverage. Can do it with the left hand while the right hand trades THE important account, with much lower returns and leverage.

All mathematical mental calculations courtesy of he, who stops the flow of rivers. Lesser beings are encouraged to use a calculator or excel spreadsheet before excreting their uninformed opinions.

Use ES market only to avoid distractions from lesser markets.