20 reasons why Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008

gold@42 · Apr 30, 2009

there is a ample amount of supply, no need for crude to rally yet. Look for crude to move once economy starts to pick up...

JPope · Apr 30, 2009

it has begun to absorb the bearish inventory reports without further weakness though, id be a buyer <$48

spanish89 · Apr 30, 2009

Im looking to load-up between 45.86 and then at 43.86,
target is going to be around $62.

Longterm target for September/October is between $80/90 - $100+ maybe,
depending on how bad hurricane season is and how bad inflation in the USA dollar gets.

ralph00 · May 1, 2009

Oil is a broken bubble. It will be years if not a decade or more before a true bull market begins. Will there strong rallies ... of course, but a new bull is way off.

Look at a chart of NAZZ post 2000, or CSCO, or DELL, or EBAY or any number of old faves. Life goes on, the companies continue to grow and make money, but it will be a generation until these companies reach anywhere near their former highs.

spanish89 · May 1, 2009

Quote from ralph00:

Oil is a broken bubble. It will be years if not a decade or more before a true bull market begins. Will there strong rallies ... of course, but a new bull is way off.

Look at a chart of NAZZ post 2000, or CSCO, or DELL, or EBAY or any number of old faves. Life goes on, the companies continue to grow and make money, but it will be a generation until these companies reach anywhere near their former highs.

Your incorrect mate...

Since we dont need ebay or dell or any of those companies.

There are millions of other companies that could step into their places in minutes!

However there is no subsitute to oil or anything else that can ste into its place.
And we DO need oil to live.

jsv416 · May 1, 2009

Quote from spanish89:

Your incorrect mate...

Since we dont need ebay or dell or any of those companies.

There are millions of other companies that could step into their places in minutes!

However there is no subsitute to oil or anything else that can ste into its place.
And we DO need oil to live.

Spanish is correct..... I believe oil will eventually pass by $135, and it wont take 10 years to happen. Our modern world would not exist without oil.

JaiSreeram · May 3, 2009

Thanks for the responses to all of you. They were very informative and interesting. It has been noticed that some of you think that oil can cross over $135 soon,so does this say that dollar shall become weak again?

Cutten · May 3, 2009

Quote from spanish89:

Your incorrect mate...

Since we dont need ebay or dell or any of those companies.

There are millions of other companies that could step into their places in minutes!

However there is no subsitute to oil or anything else that can ste into its place.
And we DO need oil to live.

All that was true in 1980 and yet - lo and behold - oil collapsed and didn't hit those highs for another 25 years.

Something being a necessity has NO IMPACT WHATSOEVER on whether it will enter a price bubble or huge bull market. It has nothing, nothing to do with it. Supply and demand, not necessity, dictates price. That's why air is free, water is dirt cheap, and Jackson Pollocks cost millions.

Cutten · May 3, 2009

Quote from ralph00:

Oil is a broken bubble. It will be years if not a decade or more before a true bull market begins. Will there strong rallies ... of course, but a new bull is way off.

.

Most major bull markets or bubbles that then have such huge collapses do not recover, as you say. However, a few have. For example, sugar had two bubbles in the 1970s within 6 years of each other. Still, the odds are definitely strongly against.

jsv416 · May 3, 2009

Quote from Cutten:

All that was true in 1980 and yet - lo and behold - oil collapsed and didn't hit those highs for another 25 years.

Something being a necessity has NO IMPACT WHATSOEVER on whether it will enter a price bubble or huge bull market. It has nothing, nothing to do with it. Supply and demand, not necessity, dictates price. That's why air is free, water is dirt cheap, and Jackson Pollocks cost millions.

You do realize that during the last 6 years the oil industry pumped in over a trillion $ into E/P, and they could not make the global supply curve go up between 2004 and 2008?

look at page 3 of this report....
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/SPE Gulf Coast.pdf

You are correct, this absolutely is a supply and demand issue, one concerning the lifeblood of all modern economies. In my humble opinion IF the powers that be can get the world economy back on its feet again the current build in inventories will disappear rather quickly and we will be in the same scenario we were in back in July of last year within a couple of years. I do not believe they will be able to ramp up supply quick enough since a lot of E/P budgets have been slashed and new projects cancelled for the time being.

Could I be wrong? Of course I could, but that is where I am putting my money to work. We may test back down to the mid to lower 40's level in oil in which case I will be a buyer on top of what I am already in.