20 reasons why Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008

Quote from JSSPMK:

That's predicting, not projecting. I would disagree, for it to remain at $20, as you suggest, apart from other factors you would need a strong USD, much lower demand & ample supply for many years to come. Right now nobody really knows whether we will pull through this crisis, what damages will be incurred & how it will be reflected on world economies.
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You're 100% Right
 
Quote from startraitor:

I am a physical education PHD candiadate, as well as a former conditioning coach for the NY Giants, playing one on one with Lebron over the weekend.
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Yeah? Well, I slept at a Holiday In Express last night! :D
 
Quote from staffpro:

i think opecs cut and promise of future cuts has pretty much guaranteed we will see it again and it maybe even worse next time... BUT that next time may be more than a few years away
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not picking on you staffpro,but to everyone who thinks we cant get fudged again by opec,that move up to 145 and back to 40 made no sense and only a handful of people know what happened(not me)now that we've seen it ,who says we cant see it again,they brought us (U.S.) to our knees ,who says they wont come back to finish us off or at least try
 
Please see following and comment:


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-rises-first-day-four/story.aspx?guid={ED2F5511-621A-4C5F-BE80-988AACADA5E5}

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDb1o_NvH5xI&refer=home

http://www.wtrg.com/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/energy.html

http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/cl/cl.asp

http://energy.einnews.com/news/crude-oil-eu

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDb1o_NvH5xI&refer=home

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123025739974434747.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://news.yahoo.com/topics/oil-and-gas

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/398702/1/.html

http://news.google.co.in/news/url?s...449740&usg=AFQjCNEbjUh6YmhzlQvbN_Qaf7Gi6uOMcw

http://www.peakoil.com/

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/wall-street-stocks-end-higher-light-christmas-week-trading-39365





Quotes from above sites:



The cartel, which controls about 40% of the world's production, decided on a cut of 1.5 million barrels a day in November. At a December meeting, it agreed to slash output by 2.2 million barrels a day.



OPEC has a sketchy record of compliance, but "the price collapse has undoubtedly shocked the cartel, and could, conceivably, elicit more than the usual degree of compliance from its members," said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global.



Crude oil rose more than 6 percent in New York, the biggest increase in two weeks, after the United Arab Emirates said it would reduce output to comply with OPEC s supply curbs.



Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., the biggest producer in the U.A.E., will reduce oil supply to Asia in January and February, according to a statement sent to buyers. OPEC agreed to a record production cut on Dec. 17 in response to collapsing demand because of the economic slowdown. Oil also advanced because the dollar dropped against the euro. .



Retail gasoline prices tumbled Friday to the lowest level in nearly five years. And while crude futures rose, analysts believed it was a temporary pause in an extended, downward arc as the recession spreads.



World oil prices rose on Friday for the first time this week amid reports the United Arab Emirates will cut production in line with an OPEC output cutback decision.


In thin post-Christmas trading, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for February delivery, rose to 37.71 dollars, up 2.36 dollars from Wednesday's closing price. Markets were closed for Christmas on Thursday.

The New York contract has been sliding over the past nine trading sessions.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/wall-street-stocks-end-higher-light-christmas-week-trading-39365
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If demand were at a bare minimum what would the price of oil be? I know this is kinda vague but what would be the lowest price oil can be before it doesn't cover the cost of producing it?
 
I think the situation with oil has to change, sooner or later, nations, if want to grow will need to continue to use it massively as it is still THE energy source. Once there is not that much panic demand will increase.
 
Quote from increasenow:

Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008...here is why...read...
1-Many will continue to profit take as price target of $135 was hit
2-Dollar is getting stronger
3-Commodity bubble about to burst
4-there will be HUGE after memorial day sell off...watch for it...will start tomorrow, Friday May 23 ,2008
5-Next Wed EIA report will be massively bearish stating overstock of inventory...
6-monthly supply reports should show back up of inventory
7-when it begins, watch out, will fall hard...
8-much of upward price momentum has been short covering rally
9-Venezuala issues appear to be a 'non issue'
10-Iran supply issues are 'not there'
11-market did not budge when congress said no more stock piling invenotry
12-"irrational exuberance" in Oil cannot continue
13-gas prices will rise and demand will lessen thus ending demand for Oil
14-Green options (non Oil required...I.e. Wind farms etc.) will continue to grow
15-COT report will begin to show this...this lack of demand for Oil
16-the "prophetic" future contracts in months, years to come are price less then the current front month contract...so, traders are expecting that Oil price will and should decline!!!
17-Brent Crude is almost same price as WTI Crude thus indicating the 'devaluing' of the WTI Nymex product...
18-China etc.cannot keep current pace of 'craving' for commodities such as Oil etc.
19-Ethanol boom will become a 'bust' thus creating desire for 'purer' return to gas and normal Oil supply/demand
20-Inflation to be proven 'non issue' and price of Oil comes down as economy strengthens

Disclosure: this is my opinion only. Do your own research before buying or selling Oil futures or USO stock or USO options or even OIH, DUG etc..or anything Oil related...

PLEASE ADD YOUR POINTS #21, #22,#23...etc..
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===============
2008 points worth repeatng-Increase now;
almost everything energy[even ethanol lol] down again today,
except USO,XLE,COP....................

a]However its now about seven [7] months later;
crude bear trended down about 77%/+.............................

[#9] Is now debatable, you may be right?

[#10] Right for that older time priod;
peradventure this is not true @ all now/2009................................
==========================================

[#16]''Prophetic'' perhaps as a manner of speaking, back months-they changed;
i used your math[,#9,#10,
#16, most everything energy derivatives, these are your numbers/list]

Nice call in 2008, nice complete list, Increase Now/nickname;
& to put it simple, trends change,[Increase now/nickname] not a prediction.


sincerely,
murray
T turtle
:cool:
 
As of today, as per today date, this thread discussion is barely a month short of a year (22 May 2009), what is the position as of now? Any opinions, please? :)
 
The way it's trading now, snoozeville. Bearish supply/demand but not enough people to get short. The price of production is about $38 and seems to be a floor. The markets ability to stay afloat no matter what the news keeps me from playng the short side for more than 1-2 days. But 19 year supply highs keep from wanting to stay long above $50-$55. Slight contango, and no real move in the spreads.

Snake in a tube.

My worthless 2 cents.
 
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