Smart advice, thank you! Reason I'm asking, I'm considering switching from stocks to futures in a few months, the added leverage has me understandably spooked.
2% Rule(s)
- Thread starter SoCalOptionsWriter
- Start date
Smart advice, thank you! Reason I'm asking, I'm considering switching from stocks to futures in a few months, the added leverage has me understandably spooked.
I don't think so. It will depend on your strategy. What kind of markets does it work in?
65% win rate might also be misleading as we don't know the relationship between wins and losses. What you plan to risk and what you lose are sometimes outside your control.
You've got a point. I personally would still be reevaluating. Money loss doesn't affect only your pnl, if youv'e had a unexpected very bad month, it can ruin your confidence, which is IMHO more important than your pnl.
Also great advice, thanks! From backtesting, it would have performed very well last year, well the first half of this year too, so I feel like that's a check on bull and bear, and I think it performs decently in trap situations because the SL hops once I gain an amount of cushion. It's roughest stretch for full losses has been the past 6 weeks, which I'm not sure what to make of yet.
Math is hard
You only need to put in your stats into a MonteCarlo Simulator, to see. Usually a win rate over 80% is safe here because you do not get too many losses in a row, which is needed for 2% SL rule. Check this out and try yourself : https://equitycurvesimulator.com/ (it is free)
https://ayondo.com/en/tools/equity-curve-simulator
https://due-diligence-hub.com/en/tools/equity_curve_simulator
Use Kelly criteria, assuming your method has positive expectancy. If it does not have, Kelly will still give you the longest time to ruin.
By playing with simulations
Found out full kelly is very risky (Ruin)
While half kelly provides way more safety
A lot of risk takers advise for half the criterion
Especially since the inputs are dynamics & approximations.
To appropriate a little advice from the cinematic masterpiece "Tropic Thunder," you never ever go full kelly! Edward Thorp cautions against this strongly in his chapter of "Hedge Fund Market Wizards."
One thing about a 2% loss rule is that it takes a while to run out of capital.
If you apply the rule correctly and risk 2% of your capital with each trade the amount you risk decreases with each loss.
If you have a 10K account you risk 200 on trade one.
When you lose on that trade you have 9.8K remaining in that account
on your next trade you risk 196.
After 50 losses in a row you still have 3641 in capital and risk 72.83 on the next trade.
If you apply the rule correctly and risk 2% of your capital with each trade the amount you risk decreases with each loss.
If you have a 10K account you risk 200 on trade one.
When you lose on that trade you have 9.8K remaining in that account
on your next trade you risk 196.
After 50 losses in a row you still have 3641 in capital and risk 72.83 on the next trade.