Thanks. Your post made me think hard and helped me realize just how important the range/trend thing is. I need to try to formalize my definition on the topic.
$2,000 to $200,000 in 2020 at 2.00% per day.
- Thread starter sstheo
- Start date
Thanks. Your post made me think hard and helped me realize just how important the range/trend thing is. I need to try to formalize my definition on the topic.
You have positive expectancy and good trade frequency, so seems everything is good. So you have an edge. Edge = expectancy.
How many trades do you have to represent this edge? Hopefully between 100 to 200 trades to remove random and lucky winning streaks.
Looks good and you are comfortable with this expectancy.
I also was recently traded a positive expectancy system with a R:R < 0.5 similar to yours. I was risking about $200-$300 to make $100 per trade. Win rate was high. I ran into a mental challenge or problem when I had 5 losses in a roll. And 2 of those losses were mistakes. So I can understand you wanting to increase your average win.
So here is what I am doing. I am tracking my R:R < 0.5 AND also tracking R:R = 1, and R:R greater than 1 per trade over XXX amount of trades. This way at the end of the test, I know which is better for me. So for trades, make sure you are measuring how much profit you could have made, had you not exit for small profit. Hope that makes some sense.
I respect your hard work. I am on the same level as you right about now and for sure Risk plays a big role. Something I really did not think about before.
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I have about 300 total trades so far in 3 weeks, or about 20 per day or an average of about 5 trades per instrument per day (YM, NQ, ES, RTY), which fits the my statistical norm. Most of those were traded as singles, but now will start with 1 or 2 micros per trade. My stats are pretty consistent.
I really like the test you are running. I am eager to hear the results.
I officially crossed the $3000 mark today.
Can I keep it? Can I continue to grow about 2% per day? This is just about $60 per day (for now). I can trade with up to 6 micros at a time on one position or spread around. $60 seems so small and so easy, but with only a few micros this really is a big challenge.
As a reminder, this is like getting $600 per day on the E-mini's with up to 6 full contracts. And this account is growing slowly in preparation for easing into a 6 contract position once I get to $30,000 in my account. I am building my stress tolerance based on a pattern of success.
As it is right now, with $3000 in my account, I could put on about 60 micros or 6 full E-minis. But I am only trading 1/10th of this. THIS IS MY (not-so-secret) SECRET. I have determined that more than anything, this is a mental game, and the stress caused by big % losses is absolutely crippling to good trade judgment.
With the 40 tick max loss per micro contract ($20 for MYM, MNQ, and M2k) my per contract max loss is tiny. Taking a loss is like getting a sliver now instead of a bee sting. I can say,"So what??" after a tiny loss. This is now, finally, a possible response - because I am sized appropriately and am being patient. I feel LIBERATED.
I still have to trade well, and with this milestone I will now start to show more of my winners and losers and do the next trading lesson I promised. I always need reminders, so I do it for myself too. Compared to many I know nothing, but compared to some I know a bunch. I will share what I can.
But the most import lesson is right here in this post:
Keep the trade size small and build your account slowly over time. Build a mighty oak tree, not a seasonal sun flower. Join me in my attempts to get the oak seed to germinate and send up that first tender shoot.
Can I keep it? Can I continue to grow about 2% per day? This is just about $60 per day (for now). I can trade with up to 6 micros at a time on one position or spread around. $60 seems so small and so easy, but with only a few micros this really is a big challenge.
As a reminder, this is like getting $600 per day on the E-mini's with up to 6 full contracts. And this account is growing slowly in preparation for easing into a 6 contract position once I get to $30,000 in my account. I am building my stress tolerance based on a pattern of success.
As it is right now, with $3000 in my account, I could put on about 60 micros or 6 full E-minis. But I am only trading 1/10th of this. THIS IS MY (not-so-secret) SECRET. I have determined that more than anything, this is a mental game, and the stress caused by big % losses is absolutely crippling to good trade judgment.
With the 40 tick max loss per micro contract ($20 for MYM, MNQ, and M2k) my per contract max loss is tiny. Taking a loss is like getting a sliver now instead of a bee sting. I can say,"So what??" after a tiny loss. This is now, finally, a possible response - because I am sized appropriately and am being patient. I feel LIBERATED.
I still have to trade well, and with this milestone I will now start to show more of my winners and losers and do the next trading lesson I promised. I always need reminders, so I do it for myself too. Compared to many I know nothing, but compared to some I know a bunch. I will share what I can.
But the most import lesson is right here in this post:
Keep the trade size small and build your account slowly over time. Build a mighty oak tree, not a seasonal sun flower. Join me in my attempts to get the oak seed to germinate and send up that first tender shoot.
sst, just noticed es 1 to 5 minute even the 10m chart for tonight 1700 to 2200 hours moved nicely. wondered what you would think of that time of 'day'.
cheers
The Asian session you mention has much lighter volume but it can be good to trade. Much lighter volume means that the prices can be pushed around much farther and faster if the big boys feel like doing that. IF you are considering trading this time of day, then (1) keep your positions small (2) get out "immediately" if you feel the edge is gone and wait for a better setup. Good luck!
for you. that session has been good to me since 2013.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/trading-chairs.226092/page-12#post-4359151
Jethro Bodine prob trades it too, lol.
_
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Hi,
Thank You for the journal. Inspiring, it is. I have a question. What time of the day you start trading and how many hours you spend in front of the screen?
I work from home as a Realtor, mainly making offers for investors. Because of this (perhaps unfortunately) I am in front of my computer most of the time the market is open. And candidly, shutting down my platform is often difficult.
I start looking at the market at about 7:30 am ET. So I trade about 4 hours a day but I am trying to get it down to 2 hours from 9:30 to 11:30 am ET which is the time with the highest volume and hence momentum.
But my goal is to stop trading an shut things down when I have reached my goal for the day - hopefully by 11:30 ET.
Because of all the craziness in the market recently I have spent many more hours watching charts trying to figure out what in the heck is going on. And I have traded all the way into the close some days recently. But I know the longer I go each, the more rusty my brain cells become and I am more likely to freeze up completely with corrosion, fear and greed.
I start looking at the market at about 7:30 am ET. So I trade about 4 hours a day but I am trying to get it down to 2 hours from 9:30 to 11:30 am ET which is the time with the highest volume and hence momentum.
But my goal is to stop trading an shut things down when I have reached my goal for the day - hopefully by 11:30 ET.
Because of all the craziness in the market recently I have spent many more hours watching charts trying to figure out what in the heck is going on. And I have traded all the way into the close some days recently. But I know the longer I go each, the more rusty my brain cells become and I am more likely to freeze up completely with corrosion, fear and greed.
