So how can I, and any trader improve?
I am trying to (#2) increase my average winner by letting my winners run when in a trend.
I'm a bit shocked to be honest. You have stats that clearly show you have an amazing edge, if your win rate can of course be maintained, but what you're focusing on is improving this??? What exactly would be the problem with performing at this same level week after week, and putting more effort into consistency when you move to 5, 6, 8, 10, etc micros?
You're changing up too many variables, and when shit hits the fan, you won't know what went wrong. You're adding contracts, which is in line with your original goal, but you're also now saying that you're changing your strategy?
The minute you try for bigger rewards, you have to accept a smaller win rate. There is simply no way around this I don't think. For those times where price moves 2 points in your favor, so you get your $8 profit, or rather would have, it might never get that high again so you're left either stopped out at break even, or take a loss. The act of trying to go for a bigger profit will in fact cause your win rate to go down. This is an absolute certainty. Yes, you might make more money because those fewer winners will be worth more, but doing this drastically alters the trading plan.
The beauty of your trading up till now, from the way that I understood it, was that you were able to trade in any condition. Your trades were in and out quite quick, and you only relied on your moving averages and immediate price action. But then I read the other day you saying you were a bit troubled by all the macro things happening in the world, and it clearly had an affect on your trading. This already told me that you were deviating from your original intentions, and now reading that you're trying to change your plan some more is another cause for alarm. The macro environment really should have no place in the way you trade, from what I see you say about price action when you reference your trades.
It seems to me like what got you from 2k to 3k is something that you're abandoning, or rather, trying to improve on, and I can't help but think that this will have a negative impact. Based on your stats thus far, you were already operating at peak efficiency, well beyond almost every trader out there if you ask me. It was a simple task to just leverage up from here, which was your plan, and a damn good one. The only variable was trading more size, and seeing if that had an effect on you emotionally. But now you've complicated the process much more in my opinion.
I get that the environment is changing, and we are hitting higher volatility, so adjustments have to be made, but the smart thing, in my opinion, is simply to keep the math the same and double your stop and target, and reduce your size, so that most things stay equal. (ie. you used to trade 4 contracts lets say with a 2 point win and 4 point stop, so now you trade 2 contracts with a 4 point win and 8 point stop)
Sorry to be so critical, and I really want to see you succeed, but the reason I feel so strongly about this is because I have been down this same road.
I think that deep down inside, you see your system was only viable in one market condition, and now the market conditions have changed. This in a way shows that the whole 50 percent growth in just a few weeks is actually very difficult to maintain over the long run. But by making all these changes, you're getting too far away from your initial set of parameters that your original plan was based on. I honestly don't think you will be able to hold for bigger winners while cutting your losing trades right away because this is the complete opposite of the system you were building and what is in your blood. ($8 win vs. $20 loss)
It also shows that you're trying to adapt to the volatility in a completely different way than what I think is easiest. By increasing stops and targets and lowering trade size, you're doing the simplest adjustment. But by tightening up your stop and wanting to increase the target, you're down a completely different road which has its own set of challenges, and a major one is lower win rate. I just don't think your mind will be able to adjust to this as you will be craving your 84 percent win rate.
