1987 looks a lot like 2007 take a loook
- Thread starter WallstYouth
- Start date
Thanks for putting up the chart. There are a number of different models for forecasting with cycles, one happens to be the Gann method using the 10 year incremements (back 10 years, 20 years etc.) This year we have a 20 year cycle to 1987 and a 10 year cycle to 1997. In each of these years we had markets that had run up significantly and then had major downside retracements (crash and a mini crash) in October. Will it work this time? Don't know. It's just another tool to use.
And for those that don't use cycles and don't know about them, the magnitude of chart scales does not have to be he same. You are looking for a pattern of highs and lows in TIME. In other words, we could have a crash in October or a downside correction in October and both of those would be in line with the cycles in time. The magnitude of the correction will give an idea as to the strenght of the market and an indication of what to expect in the future.
Best, Joule
And for those that don't use cycles and don't know about them, the magnitude of chart scales does not have to be he same. You are looking for a pattern of highs and lows in TIME. In other words, we could have a crash in October or a downside correction in October and both of those would be in line with the cycles in time. The magnitude of the correction will give an idea as to the strenght of the market and an indication of what to expect in the future.
Best, Joule
great point.
+ another hurricane is coming which may hit mexico oil fields again. if oil companies can't sell then the market can't sell. in these times we really need to see a serious correction in oil to have any meaningful correction in the stock markets imho. that is also very different from 1987.
even if spus sell off to 1370 we are still inside the bull move since 2003,so if the whitehouse and fed put up sandbags on fri to prevent flood of sellers,and fed dumps tons of cash into mrkt,that says dont invest right now,which says liquidate ,which says mrkt is goin down,doesnt say how far but its negative and ya cant be long here,this is the money short we've been dreamin of,just hope the clearing firms have cash available when it settles
that is true - but what happens if both B&B got it completely wrong and economy is just going tu hume along?
That means only more wood under the fire...
I don't propose to be long - just say that there is not going to be anything like a big selloff - say more than 100 points on S&P from here by the end of the year. In fact I do not believe we will see S&P below 1400 as you can rarely see a better bottom than on Aug-16. It is interesting to compare it with the February selloff and the very similar pattern/bottom on Mar-14!
Of course in the long term B&B just helped to screw US even more - more inflation, less productivity, lower dollar, more reliance on government, more stupid risk, less saving etc etc. It just makes Asia dominance faster to come.