1987 looks a lot like 2007 take a loook

[dhpar]

Quote from joule57:

My first post on this forum. I guess that is the way the system works. It would appear that when one posts that the number of posts shown are the number of previous posts. Why the frown?

just kidding - and bingo - all is fine now - you have one post. welcome

 

[efficiency]

Quote from Muskoka Joe:

There should not be too much dispute that analogs or fractals of the past play out in the future. They are evident all the time, often on the same market chart using different time frames.

The greatest "proof" of this would involve 1987. Paul Tudor Jones used an analog of 1929 to be properly positioned for the 87 crash. He made a small but understandable mistake in thinking the aftermath would be the same also; which is the other characteristic of fractals/ analogs... they don't last forever.

Massaging data can be FUN!. DOT did it back in 1973 to reduce the speed limit from 70 to 55. I''m sure actuaries do it all the time. Ditto for statisticians and accountants. The latter, en masse, have yet to be able to explain to me why a pre-paid expense is a line item in current assets (which by definition converts to cash whereas a pre-paid is a sunk cost). We won't delve into accelerated depreciation other than to say Fazbee ruled out sum of the year's digits AND double declining balance.

Hocus Pocus, alakazam.

In 1985, Joe Granville depicted parallels between 1929 and 1985. To some extent he was right (and two years early). However, late '87 recovered, '30 did not.

Technicians look for recurring patterns, but each chart is unique. Like a fingerprint.

The Hindenburg Omen works about a third of the time. Probably less for the 3 Dome House (which takes time to unfold). . VIX was worthless (as opposed to worth less) for about 2 years.

Attached is a chart of the NET new highs versus new lows in the form of a 10 day to 30 day oscillator (ala' Justin Mamis) for the last 150 days. Does it have bearing?

Maybe, maybe not. But "something" is..........eh.............sticking out.

Paul Tudor Jones, besides "only losers average losers" has stated he doesn't "pick" tops or bottoms, but seeks the meat of the move. I would imagine he was on Barron's roundtable, for a lack of a better phrase, warning, in January 1986.

 

[abxs]

(1) Stock Market Crash of 1929 - The Dow falls a total of 23% for October 28 and 29;

(2) October 13 and 16, 1989 - The Dow plunges 190.50 points, or 6.9% on October 13

(3) Black Monday, October 19, 1987 and October 20 - The Dow suffers the biggest percentage loss in recorded stock market history on October 19 and initially continues its plunge on the 20th.

(4) October 27, 1997 mini-crash ("Asian flu")

October anybody?