16 years 9 months, crazy fast global warming

[jem]

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.08.008, How to Cite or Link Using DOI

Abstract

Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2. In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets: 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 3) GISS surface air temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface data, 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions. Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5–10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes.

Highlights

► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature. ► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5–10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature. ► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature. ► Changes in ocean temperatures explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980. ► Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.

 

[Trader666]

CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

Then do the planet a favor and stop exhaling.

 

[piezoe]

So piezoe. Do you still think this recent rise in CO2 is due to anything other than man?
I see you seem to avoid the hard questions that make your "argument" look silly.

It might be from something other or it may be from man. That it wasn't from man was not my point.

 

[futurecurrents]

It might be from something other or it may be from man. That it wasn't from man was not my point.

Thank you for proving MY point. You are a fool.

 

[Trader666]

The photos, too?

<img src="https://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g00472_glacier_photos/images/pair_example_medres_850px.jpg">

How about this ice, which was supposed to be ALL gone by summer 2013, rectum?

 

[gwb-trading]

The global warming hiatus
"It will by 2017 be impossible to reconcile climate models with reality."
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/16/the-global-warming-hiatus/

"With CO2 levels continuing to rise, it will at that point be impossible to reconcile climate models with reality and the mainstream consensus on how the climate system responds to greenhouse gases will begin breaking apart."

"The IPCC briefly discussed the seriousness of the model-observation discrepancy in Chapter 9 of the 2013 report. It reports that over the 1998-2012 interval 111 out of 114 climate model runs over-predicted warming, achieving thereby, as it were, a 97% consensus." <--- this is the only 97% that exists!

 

[Ricter]

smoking is a great example and illustrates your problems with causation.

by analogy... you all would have to be arguing that the deaths caused smoking.

Because all the data we have shows warming happens and then co2 accumulates.
(then cooling happens and co2 dissipates.)


CO2 lags change in ocean temps and change in land temps.

That chart is related to this one:

<img src="http://www.carbonify.com/images/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide.gif">

 

[futurecurrents]

That chart is related to this one:

<img src="http://www.carbonify.com/images/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide.gif">

And this one. This is more empirical evidence that, as logic would predict, rising levels of CO2 should cause temperatures to rise.

 

[Ricter]

And this one. This is more empirical evidence that, as logic would predict, rising levels of CO2 should cause temperatures to rise.

Jem did acknowledge, yesterday I think, that he saw the assertion that CO2 acts as a... "delayer" of heat loss back to space. He questions it, but I am glad he finally saw it. I've been holding that point in mind, too, but had lost the link to the paper. I would like to see a calculated chart of how our temperature changes would have looked if CO2 did not rise with the N. American summer but remained constant. I suspect the annual cooling would be significantly more pronounced.

 

[Trader666]

The global warming hiatus
"It will by 2017 be impossible to reconcile climate models with reality."
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/16/the-global-warming-hiatus/

"With CO2 levels continuing to rise, it will at that point be impossible to reconcile climate models with reality and the mainstream consensus on how the climate system responds to greenhouse gases will begin breaking apart."

"The IPCC briefly discussed the seriousness of the model-observation discrepancy in Chapter 9 of the 2013 report. It reports that over the 1998-2012 interval 111 out of 114 climate model runs over-predicted warming, achieving thereby, as it were, a 97% consensus." <--- this is the only 97% that exists!

Our resident troll, futurecurrents, pretends the hiatus doesn't exist when even the IPCC acknowledges it