10 yr futures

who is the biggest 10y local? is that mr. BLUMFIELD?when he is long, what kind of position u think he has on 10k? or more?thx
 
Quote from trdinglife:

I don't think it is a technical level at all...it is more a psychological inflection point...4% is the real Level...but if it goes through this there are likely stops and small fed up shorts that will fire the market upwards further...if 3.97 or 96 breaks...then you have more than just stops and locals getting out...this starts to worry the MBS guys and then you have all hell break loose as convexity bids are unleashed...we've already seen some convexity trades on the way up...below 3.96/7 we are likely to see a heck of a lot more... no wonder 4% was so well defended today no? the real technical level is the low yield of I think 3.86 that was the low yield print the last time we got up here...please correct me if I'm wrong on that one...
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I think that is an accurate analysis. The only thing I see differently is the support you place at 4.00 - IMO it is overstated. But I agree with the rest of it.

nitro
 
Quote from FuturesTrader71:

Nitro,

Can you refer me to any material that might explain how you arrive at 3.96 and why it is significant?

I watch ZB and ZN as well FGBL all day and I'm curious....
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FuturesTrader71,

See my response above.

nitro
 
I think what we are seeing is a "greenspan squeeze," look at the yield curve. Greenie wants to fight inflation, but you can bet he will do everything in his power to keep the yield curve from going inverted, re-releasing the bond didn't do it. If these things (5yr, 10yr, bonds) can keep rallying the Fed is going to have a hard time raising rates next go round. Just my opinion.
 
Quote from 5yrtrader:

I think what we are seeing is a "greenspan squeeze," look at the yield curve. Greenie wants to fight inflation, but you can bet he will do everything in his power to keep the yield curve from going inverted, re-releasing the bond didn't do it. If these things (5yr, 10yr, bonds) can keep rallying the Fed is going to have a hard time raising rates next go round. Just my opinion.
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we are seing a continuation of a credit driven flight to quality. i think G will go exactly as far as it will take to arrive to the neutral rate. if the next set of CPI numbers would come in high, i'd not be surprized to see FFs at 4 by december. as for inverted curve - if the CPI numbers would come in strong enough to cause G to hike up to 3.75 and 4, the long-dates stuff will sell-off.

as for next FOMC - with 10s sampling 4 and the belly of the curve in a wild rally, the July ff futures are trading steady at 96.75 and both 97 or 96.875 calls are pretty cheap.
 
High volume (1.3M) in an R zone that hasn't been touched since mid Feb, with price backing off from it. If it punches over 113 135/320 we're going to see one hell of a short squeeze. The rest of this week should be a good clue.
 
Biggest ten year pit and screen local at the moment is Hardy Brumfield (Harris' bro). I would hope Harris is not trading anymore with fiduciary responsibilities at TT (at one point Harris was largest in pit and screen till he became involved more at TT). A good sized position for Hardy on average is probably 2000-4000 contracts. When he gets really crazy, and I have seen this happen in the pit, when the occassional huge order comes in like RJO Obrien selling 20,000 notes before the last ten-year auction, he took on 12,000 of them, no joke, huge set of cajones. Chip Kenyon is no longer trading, last I heard was coaching his sons sports teams and doing a ton of skiiing. Baldwin is still in most days upstairs trading 10's and 30's on the screen.
 
I think CNBC ticker for 10-yr yield stops updating on close of CBOT pit trading -- 3pm EST, not sure about the early close on friday. But 4.07 sounds about right.
 
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