10 yr futures

B

badtrader

can someone explain what is happening in the 10 yr futures today? From my understanding, we rallied yesterday because of supply inbalances and possibly from funds unwinding GM debt. But why would things totally reverse today? Someone help a brother out here.
 
Quote from abducens:

Housing numbers this am were below expected and we are at that 4% level which is huge support.
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The real support is at 3.96 ish. 4.00 is probably what 10,000 is to the DOW, purely psychological support.

nitro
 
Nitro,

Can you refer me to any material that might explain how you arrive at 3.96 and why it is significant?

I watch ZB and ZN as well FGBL all day and I'm curious....
 
Saw reactions to a good old-fashioned squeeze from yesterday afternoon to this morning. The cheapest-to-deliver Ten-year note against the June contract (Feb 2012 4 7/8% coupon) is in very limited supply, the Federal Reserve owns about 15% of them, causing a mad rush from dealers needing to pay up in the futures hedge. Also, biggest ten year local was long after Minutes yesterday so that aided the push up late. Just my opinion, if anyone wants to add anything go ahead.
 
Holland (or somebody around there) indicated that pension reform would be delayed thereby drying up (temporarily) buying the 10 year which caused it to come off today...

the May short squeeze predominated though.....

when the bond market cracks, a river of tears there will be.........
 
It is "overvalued" and there was a ending diagonal / falling wedge on the intraday charts at yesterday's close. Everything AH yesterday and PM today was a gift to those looking to position on the short side. :cool:
 
Quote from FuturesTrader71:

Nitro,

Can you refer me to any material that might explain how you arrive at 3.96 and why it is significant?

I watch ZB and ZN as well FGBL all day and I'm curious....
More...

I don't think it is a technical level at all...it is more a psychological inflection point...4% is the real Level...but if it goes through this there are likely stops and small fed up shorts that will fire the market upwards further...if 3.97 or 96 breaks...then you have more than just stops and locals getting out...this starts to worry the MBS guys and then you have all hell break loose as convexity bids are unleashed...we've already seen some convexity trades on the way up...below 3.96/7 we are likely to see a heck of a lot more... no wonder 4% was so well defended today no? the real technical level is the low yield of I think 3.86 that was the low yield print the last time we got up here...please correct me if I'm wrong on that one...
 
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