10% success rate is better than 60% success rate?

10% success rate is better than 60% success rate?

  • No

  • Yes


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Like dtrader98 already showed,
each time just invert the prediction of the poor 10% strategy, then you will be correct 90% of the time.
And of course 90% is better than the 60% of the other strategy.
Simple maths & logic, folks... ;-)

Yes, a strategy that has a 10% success rate is indeed better than another strategy that has 60% success rate.
One just needs to invert the predictions of the poor strategy: if it predicts that tomorrow will be an UP day, then you take exactly the opposite (ie. DOWN), and vice-versa...
If you apply this logic then you will be right in 90% of all the cases.

The result of the voting up until now is very poor: only 1 of the 5 voters has it correct... ;-)
 
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Like dtrader98 already showed,
each time just invert the prediction of the poor 10% strategy, then you will be correct 90% of the time.
And of course 90% is better than the 60% of the other strategy.
Simple maths & logic, folks... ;-)

are you curve-fitting?
 
You have 2 strategies for predicting the market direction.
One has a success rate of 60% and the other strategy has only 10%.
Which one is better?

Are you getting paid to open new threads?

A real trader wouldn't even bother to answer your question as it is stupid.

What color of shoes should you wear to make more profits? And would it help to take two left shoes?
 
Are you getting paid to open new threads?
No, I don't get paid for opening new threads or posting.
I just wanted to test the intelligence of the "experts" here ;-)

A real trader wouldn't even bother to answer your question as it is stupid.
Because you failed to find the right answer?

What color of shoes should you wear to make more profits? And would it help to take two left shoes?
Sorry to say that, but you unfortunately don't understand the simple but very important maths behind it. Maybe one day you will, I hope so for you.
 
so much arrogance for someone who has never made any money trading...
FYI: I'm in the markets since about the year 2000... ;-) Mostly stocks trading. Since about 5 years also long options of stocks.
And only since recently also short options (ie. selling of options), but with options selling still no practical experience yet, still learning hedging etc.
But been only a hobbyist trader because my real profession has been a software developer all the time (low level programming in C++, Client/Server network programming etc.).
The market will humble you very quickly
I know, unfortunately... ;-)
One has to learn maths to beat that market monster... ;-)
 
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Rumor was that Citadel had their risk managers follow that thread to learn about compounding.

No wonder!

http://www.wsj.com/articles/hedge-fund-citadel-cuts-employees-in-wake-of-losses-1455815009

Hedge Fund Citadel Cuts Employees in Wake of Losses
Citadel’s main fund is down 6.5% this year
By Rob Copeland
Feb. 18, 2016 12:03 p.m. ET

Hedge-fund giant Citadel cut more than a dozen members of its investment staff this week in the wake of early losses for the firm in 2016.

 
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