1.8% Profit per Day Compounded over 220 Days

[expiated]

I’m basically using three tactics now: Regression to the mean against the trend, mean reversion with the trend, and baseline reversal.

In adapting NPP for trading Nadex binary options—a variation I’m calling Baseline Bonanza—I’m now thinking of what I’m doing as rejoining the trend after price’s having deviated away from it.

My first trade to test the system was to purchase a USDJPY two-hour binary option put contract as soon as Nadex opened for business at 3:00 PM here on the West Coast...

However, since sending in the order, all of my signals have turned bullish. So, I will have to abandon this position if the rate begins to rise.

UPDATE: Because of a bullish two-hour and 40-minute signal, I was going to exit this trade with about $5 showing, which would have netted me about $3 profit. Unfortunately, I forgot to click on the contract before hitting the "Place Order" button, so that what I ended up doing was purchasing a second put contract.

That kind of messes things up, so I'm just going to ride this out and see what happens (given that this is just a demo account).

SECOND UPDATE: USDJPY continued to move in my favor, and this allowed me to close the two contracts an hour and fifteen minutes early with about a $20 gain...

 

[expiated]

As it turned out, USDJPY would have been in-the-money at expiry. I was going to get a screen shot of GBPUSD (the next contract I purchased) just before expiry to document the same thing in that case, but I got mixed up and accidentally went to do so an hour late. In any case, there are too many trade opportunities to document them all. Suffice it to say that how fast the demo account grows will be the proof in the pudding regarding this system.

 

[expiated]

I think I'm going to stop here in that as of this moment, this thread is no longer of much interest to me. Part of its original purpose was to "generate a level of commitment on my part that will help motivate me to exert whatever amount of effort is necessary to... get underway."

Clearly this is no longer necessary.

I was also intrigued by the challenge of growing a small account, but at this point, it is rather obvious (to me at least) that trading via Nadex I can generate far more than 1.8% profit per day compounded over 220 days, so that it doesn't really constitute a challenge to me any longer.

(So far the demo account has garnered $176.75 since Friday.)

So, there is no real point to spending the next 220 days documenting how much money is being accumulated day by day, even if and when I am once again trading my Nadex live account in place of the demo, God willing.

Besides, how much money is actually being accumulated in my personal account is probably not something I'll want to make public. So, for my purposes at least, I've already proven to myself that this goal is not necessarily outside the realm of reality, and that's good enough for me.

 

[expiated]

Monday, October 19, 2020

I am no longer developing nor evaluating Numerical Price Prediction (NPP), so anything else I do on this site will be purely for fun. That said, I have lost interest in the original 1.8% profit per day compounded over 220 days because (hypothetically/theoretically) much more money could be generated trading a Nadex binary option account, now that I know the beta version of the exchange's platform seems to function much better than the original.

So, out of curiosity (unless or until I become bored with it) I think I'll switch to see by how much I can grow the $10,000 demo account I began trading on Thursday, October 8th, over a period of 220 days, trading five days a week. (I will not be sharing how much money is in my actual live trading accounts.) This would put the final day somewhere around Thursday, August 19, 2021 (I believe).

So far, I have taken the account from $10,000 to...

The original goal was to see an initial $100 balance reach $5000 (a multiple of 50) so I guess the question now is will the Nadex demo account reach half a million over the next ten months? Yikes!!!.

 

[expiated]

Friday, October 23, 2020

Since I am neither developing nor optimizing NPP any longer, I have lost interest in the original goal of 1.8% profit per day compounded over 220 days trading with a traditional Forex broker. Given the system's reliability, NPP could theoretically generate much more money traded via a Nadex binary option account. So, out of curiosity, I'm switching to see by how much I can grow the $10,000 demo account I began trading Sunday evening through Friday morning (five days a week) on Thursday, October 8, 2020, over the next 220 active days. I believe this would put the final day somewhere around Wednesday, August 18, 2021.

 

[expiated]

So, out of curiosity (unless or until I become bored with it) I think I'll switch to see by how much I can grow the $10,000 demo account I began trading on Thursday, October 8th, over a period of 220 days, trading five days a week.

Looks like not. The demo account expires in 12 days. Supposedly I can keep it forever if I open a live account, but I'm already trading my live account, so what are they talking about? In any case, I'm letting the demo account expire. (The less I have to deal with Nadex customer service, the better.)

 

[expiated]

This week I participated in a NADEX Demo Trading Challenge (in addition to continuing to trade my NADEX live account) and managed a 50% ROI on the initial $10,000 starting balance. So theoretically, it should have been possible to double the account size to $20,000 by the end of two weeks.

 

[Overnight]

This week I participated in a NADEX Demo Trading Challenge (in addition to continuing to trade my NADEX live account) and managed a 50% ROI on the initial $10,000 starting balance. So theoretically, it should have been possible to double the account size to $20,000 by the end of two weeks.

View attachment 244512

Well, there's a new one now. Give it a whirl! Good luck!

https://www.cmegroup.com/futures_ch...um=trading_challenge_page&itm_campaign=banner

 

[expiated]

Monday, January 4, 2021

So, I’m basically using three tactics now: Regression to the mean against the trend (see sell AUDJPY), regression to the mean with the trend (these are the two mean reversion strategies), and baseline reversal. However, exactly which baseline shall remain nameless. These techniques should work even better and yield more significant profits once the market is active again...

What I'm doing now is quite different from what I was doing back in October of last year. Using what I'm calling my "Secret Sauce" version of Numerical Price Prediction (NPP), I switch back and forth between 240-, 60-, 15-, 5-, and 1-minute charts to get different perspectives, even though all of these time frames are basically configured with the same relative/corresponding measures.

With this approach, realizing 1.8% profit per day trading a small account on a very part-time basis is not at all unattainable (see image below). Obviously, though I'm using the same approach in both my Ally Invest and OANDA [and also my Forex.com] accounts, I'm not always making the exact same trades...

The main difference between this version and that from the above cited post is that I'm now relying on the three-day baseline to help guide my actions. But I would not regard this as an actionable measure, so when it comes to making a final determination as to which direction to trade, I am more interested in the 16-hour (2/3rds of a day) baseline along with the 8-hour price flow (i.e., the slope of the 8-hour price range envelope).

And rather than lean on mean reversion as a primary tactic, I'm looking for reversals in the four-hour trend at both price-range-based AND time-based support and resistance levels. This made me curious as to whether I could find any other trader online who specifically uses temporal support and resistance as part of their system, but the only thing I found was a snip that ArchAngel posted on November 15, 2001 which s/he said came from a trading guide that does a pretty good job discussing basic concepts of support/resistance, which stated:

"Analysis of the intraday price action at a granular level and use of a set of multi-temporal algorithms can project high probability zones of intraday support and resistance."

I tried using keyword searches to discover just where this came from to see exactly what the author meant by "multi-temporal algorithms," but without any luck.

 

[expiated]

I tried using keyword searches to discover just where this came from to see exactly what the author meant by "multi-temporal algorithms," but without any luck.

All I can find are academic papers similar to the one pictured below, but nothing of any practical use.