1.8% Profit per Day Compounded over 220 Days

[expiated]

Well, that didn't work.

Analysis: When you made this error, there was a dip in the five-minute and seven-minute price flow, and candlesticks had begun to peek under the 15-minute baseline.

So then, judging by the information you have thus far, before you sell an asset that had been heading north, at the very least, you are probably going to also need to see a dip in the 15-minute baseline, which aligns with a notation you made in the past where you actually relied on the 15-minute confirmation moving average to give you permission (or the go ahead) before you were allowed to act on a possible momentary reversal.

On a fifteen-minute chart, it appears that the best you could do would be to look for the instantaneous moving average to cross below the 30-minute baseline.

EURAUD looks like it's turning south, and it IS bearish. So, let's see if you can make any money off of selling it, though ideally, you would have much rather seen it behaving this way up around 1.6340 rather than down here around 1.6324.

 

[expiated]

CADJPY gave me back 75ȼ of the -$1.18 it took from me earlier, but then took another 48ȼ when it failed to follow through on a legitimate pullback. So again, I might have to make it a cardinal rule to never go against the trend if I want to play it super safe.

However, I didn't go against the trend with EURAUD, yet it had the nerve to "steal" -$1.27 away from me anyway, stopping me out after initially making a move south. Everything I did in this case was by the book, so that's just the breaks!

I'm currently long CADJPY once again. If it manages to clear the 79.55 level, I'm not seeing much congestion in the way on my daily chart until up around 80.00, so maybe this pair will offer the lion's share of the 5% daily ROI I'm seeking, if I'm fortunate.

However, I entered this position based on what I was seeing on my one-minute chart, and NOT based on what I see above.

 

[expiated]

I managed to clear $1.80 this morning ($2.05) after learning a couple of lessons from last night’s trades involving CADJPY, EURAUD, and EURPY (not pictured). But, I’m no longer trading with a balance of just $100, so this doesn’t really amount to more than 1.80% anymore.

Last night made it clear that the so-called (two-hour) overbought and oversold conditions, though valid, are not reliable enough to be trusted, nor as a consequence, to be automated.

However, further analysis led to the possible discovery inside the 15-minute configuration of potential statistical support/resistance levels that just might be (i.e., reliable enough to be trusted, and as a consequence, automated).

I therefore plan to translate them to my five-minute configuration and attempt trading off of them. (Transferring [coding] them to one-minute charts is likely to eat up a lot of memory, but if they seem to work well plotted on the five-minute setup, I’ll give it a try anyway and see to what degree it slows down responsiveness/function, given that precision and detail are of the utmost importance.)

 

[expiated]

Further analysis led to the possible discovery inside the 15-minute configuration of potential statistical support/resistance levels that just might be reliable enough to be trusted, and as a consequence, automated. I therefore plan to translate them to my five-minute configuration and attempt trading off of them. (Transferring [coding] them to one-minute charts is likely to eat up a lot of memory, but if they seem to work well plotted on the five-minute setup, I’ll give it a try anyway and see to what degree it slows down responsiveness/function, given that precision and detail are of the utmost importance.)

Fortunately, it turned out that there is a standard SMA Envelope that is close enough to the above-mentioned potential statistical support/resistance levels (i.e., price range/ranges) to do the trick, which solves the problem of eating up too much memory on one-minute charts.

So then, not only was it a mistake to use four-hour parameters as the backbone of my approach to intraday trading, but even two-hours is pushing the limit, though it does NOT go over it, so my two-hour indicators remain.

Nonetheless, as noted previously, I believe somewhere between 15 and 30 minutes is the sweet spot...on which I plan to focus like a laser over the next 24 hours of trading.

 

[expiated]

USDCAD and GBPUSD were my first two trades made to test the new theory. Again, because the market is dead right now and to virtually guaranty successful outcomes, I was seeking only a single pip of profit, except that this time, the experiment unfolded as anticipated. So, once the London session opens approximately twelve hours from now, I'll go ahead and apply the new strategy in earnest to see what happens.

 

[expiated]

Last night made it clear that the so-called (two-hour) overbought and oversold conditions, though valid, are not reliable enough to be trusted, nor as a consequence, to be automated.

I just assigned maximum threshold values to the slope of the two-hour baseline, parameters that should theoretically let me know when the trend is too strong for statistical support and resistance levels to hold so that I don't anticipate reversals that are never going to materialize. I hope this helps!!!

 

[expiated]

So, I’m basically using three tactics now: Regression to the mean against the trend (see sell AUDJPY), regression to the mean with the trend (these are the two mean reversion strategies—see buy AUDJPY), and baseline reversal (see buy EURJPY). However, exactly which baseline shall remain nameless. These techniques should work even better and yield more significant profits once the market is active again...

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Are you finding that you need to adjust your settings between each of the forex instruments? From what I remember when I used to trade forex, some trended and some ranged. Seems like things like band deviations or the maximum threshold values for slopes would vary as you move between currency pairs. Just curious.

 

[expiated]

Are you finding that you need to adjust your settings between each of the forex instruments? From what I remember when I used to trade forex, some trended and some ranged. Seems like things like band deviations or the maximum threshold values for slopes would vary as you move between currency pairs. Just curious.

No, which pairs are trending and which ones are range bound varies with fundamental conditions. The Cable pairs tend to have moves that are more dramatic than the rest, but this is baked into the cake as far as my configurations are concerned. There are certain times when the Aussie pairs exhibit radical behavior as well and the same is true of USDCAD, so my indicators are setup to accommodate all of this.

 

[expiated]

In light of the degree of success I had on Thursday and Friday trading Numerical Price Prediction by means of a demo account I opened using Nadex’s “new” beta platform, I plan to see if the exchange will reactivate my live account, which the company suspended due to my prolonged period of inactivity.

This is because the potential to realize exponential growth with respect to my initial balance is much greater at Nadex then it is at OANDA.

However, to conduct this exercise via Nadex, I’m going to have to break the 1% risk-/money-management rule that prohibits risking more the 1% of one’s total account on any single trade.

However, it’s not quite as bad as one might argue. Technically, purchasing a GBPUSD two-hour binary option call contract for $61 would be risking a whopping 63% of a $100 account including fees. However, because Numerical Price Prediction purports to enable one to “read” precisely what’s going on in the market at any given moment, a trader should never remain in a losing position until expiry.

Supposedly, the NPP forecast model equips traders with the ability to interpret exactly what the market is apt to do next. Consequently, a position should never ever turn against the trader. If it does, it means the model was wrong, in which case, the trader should abandon the position immediately because, hypothetically, no prediction should ever go wrong when trading this system and one can therefore assume that things have gone seriously awry.

There is no waiting around to see if the situation changes such that factors are once again lining up in one’s favor. A trader can do all the observing and evaluating s/he wants after having closed the position. And should circumstances indeed change, s/he can reenter the position under the new set of conditions. In any event, there should be no hesitation whatsoever about cutting losses short the moment price action contradicts expectations because theoretically, this should never happen.

Second, if NPP is as reliable as it claims to be, the trader should be correct at least eight times out of ten. So even if s/he loses 10% on a single trade after heeding the above advice, s/he would nonetheless experience overwhelming success in the long run.

Of course, by starting off with a tiny account, a trader could blow everything and it still wouldn’t be all that big of a deal. Starting off with a hundred bucks and losing it all would still only be a loss of a hundred bucks. But again, hypothetically, that shouldn’t happen anyway. And as the account balance begins to grow, that $63 will decrease proportionally until it is indeed no more that 1% of the $6,300 account balance.