1.8% Profit per Day Compounded over 220 Days

[expiated]

Thursday / 7:40 AM PST / September 17, 2020

Using this approach, losing trades should almost disappear...

I thought losing trades were supposed to almost disappear! So, what went wrong with EURAUD?

Well, it appears you put too much trust in the 90- and 120-minute baselines to inform you of where price was ultimately headed. There is too much "play" within the price ranges for you to do that, which leads to the second factor you think you noticed...

Don't forget to use the adaptive price range envelopes to gauge how far price might potentially travel, especially the bold olive colored one. In other words, you might want to think twice about entering a position following a reversal unless it is taking place relatively close to the edge of the price range. Even then, you'll want to still be hesitant if the corresponding band is sloping sharply away from the direction of the potential reversal. (You might even find that, in this situation, the longer-term moving averages are evidencing just the slightest initial indications/hints of a wholesale reversal in the intraday trend.)

As for dealing with too much play to trust the 90- and 120-minute baselines, the blue/purple moving average cluster is probably a more valid measure of "actionable" price direction.

By the way, given the focus on the bold olive bands, you might wonder why not just delete the bluish gray ones? But the reason is because they come into play when there is not so much fluctuation within a given trend.

 

[maxinger]

Thursday / 7:40 AM PST / September 17, 2020

I thought losing trades were supposed to almost disappear! So, what went wrong with EURAUD?

View attachment 239546

Well, it appears you put too much trust in the 90- and 120-minute baselines to inform you of where price was ultimately headed. There is too much "play" within the price ranges for you to do that, which leads to the second factor you think you noticed...

View attachment 239545
Don't forget to use the adaptive moving average envelopes, especially the bold olive green one, to gauge how far price is likely to travel. If the candlesticks are too close to the boundary to make the reward-to-risk ratio worthwhile, then pass on the trade.

As for dealing with too much play to trust the 90- and 120-minute baselines, the blue/purple moving average cluster is probably a more valid measure of "actionable" price direction.

Interestingly expiated normally
answer with an excel sheet and chart with multiple indicators.

and that will happen again.

 

[expiated]

 

[expiated]

USDCHF turned against me overnight, so at this point, I've failed to reach my 5% target for the day.

 

[expiated]

USDCHF turned against me overnight.

I think I might have just had an epiphany in this regard...something that can prevent this from happening in the future and that I have alluded to repeatedly over the last week or two, which is no surprise given that it has been staring me in the face this whole time. I should know for sure by tomorrow.

 

[expiated]

I should know for sure by tomorrow.

Looks good. For me, the key is the correct use of the 30-minute baseline.

 

[expiated]

You entered USDCAD on the "wrong" side of the four-hour baseline. Evaluate whether you should make this a hard and fast restriction and see if you can extend today's gain from $1.83 to more than $5.00.

 

[expiated]

You entered USDCAD on the "wrong" side of the four-hour baseline. Evaluate whether you should make this a hard and fast restriction and see if you can extend today's gain from $1.83 to more than $5.00.

It looks like I'm not going to make it to $5.00 today. In any event, having had a go at broadening my trading frame of reference, at this point I'd have to say I'm inclined to make it my regular routine to operate via the lowest time frames. With everything I've seen in terms of price action, to do otherwise would, from my perspective, be analogous to trying to perform surgery with a sledgehammer. The best way to avoid having things go wrong is for me to trade as if I were performing microsurgery.

 

[expiated]

Sunday / October 4, 2020

I recently commented to someone that, as it turns out, what I'm now doing is so simple that it would probably take people almost no time at all to learn, prompting me to nix my hypothetical, possibly some-time-in-the-future idea of opening up a prop firm to train recruits; and to begin planning instead to explore the possibility of finding someone I can pay to write code that will execute trades using the exact same protocol I use (if this is possible and if such a person exists).

I might have come up with a plan sooner than I anticipated, however...

Using my lower panel “Price Anomaly Chanel” indicator to generate alert signals based on a mean reversion strategy (or regression toward the mean) could be accomplished by sounding the alarm when assets enter so-called overbought or oversold conditions as indicated by one or both oscillators crossing above or below the thin fire brick upper or lower inner band, as appropriate (or extreme conditions beyond the upper or lower bold gray outer bands).

The trigger signal would go off when one or both oscillators crossed back over one of the thin fire brick bands to reenter the channel’s central interior (exact protocol will need to be worked out later).

But this wouldn’t be automatic. A trader would have to perform a visual check to ensure that price was actually reversing direction back toward the mean (along with an associated yellow moving average and/or orange moving average envelope) to verify that the signal was not being generated simply by the mean rising or falling to meet price.

Then again, even this step could be carried out by an automated program by simply stipulating positions should not be entered into until and unless the slope(s) of the orange/yellow indicators are actually rising or falling, as appropriate.

 

[expiated]

My first trade using the above tactic will be to sell CADJPY. Given that I am going against the intraday trend and seeing as how the market is essentially dead right now, I will only be seeking a mere single pip's worth of profit in an attempt to almost guarantee success...just to test the theory. (If this trade were aligned with the trend and the market was active right now, I would probably aim for a minimum of five to ten pips profit.)

UPDATE: Well, that didn't work. So I guess I'm going to have to make it a rule to never go against the trend, or at least not if I want to play it super safe. Anyway, since the trend is that strong, I went ahead and entered a long position, buying CADJPY, structure and optimum entry levels notwithstanding.