1.8% Profit per Day Compounded over 220 Days

[Turveyd]

Thanks for the comment. I appreciate having another set of eyes looking at this thing realistically.

Since I started out with just a hundred bucks, if I stuck to this schedule, by Day 16 I’d be trying to make $10 a day, which I think is quite reasonable. By Day 63 that would be $100, which is enough for me to pay all my expenses without any other source of income if I live frugally enough.

By Day 110 I would be shooting for $1000 a day, and would probably be comfortable with this, seeing as I would have over $20,000 sitting in my account (assuming everything was going according to plan and, that by that time, trading the system would be little more than a daily routine in which I would have the utmost confidence).

Assuming I averaged 10 trades per day, I’m guessing it would be somewhere around Day 157 that I would have to decide if I really wished to continue on the same path, since I don’t think I would see much reason for me to try to make more than $1000 per trade. By then, I would probably be more interested in working with a programmer to automate the system, and then looking for ways to bring other people in so that they might profit by acting on the algorithm’s signals.

I started with $300 many years ago, not added any and built it up to 7K with 6K withdrawn area, just shy of +5% today at +$300 currently, so +5% is possible, but need a simple repeatable method and the patience to not get gambly ever or all gone.

What do you trade and how ??


Like $1000 per day would be great, new MTB, holidays and fun fun fun, but $100 per day even 3days per week is enough to cover my bills, can't see the point in being too greedy.

Really trying to hit $1000+ most days mind, got a list of things I'll be buying

 

[expiated]

What do you trade and how ??

After two years I'm finally starting to get really locked in on a very tightly controlled approach to applying my system. I have 15 of the major currency pairs on my watch list and trade them only when they reach the top or bottom of the daily price range as defined by a statistical analysis of historical data (what I call statistical support/resistance) or when they bounce off intraday statistical support/resistance to resume a trajectory in the direction of the intraday trend.

I have been extremely cautious thus far, trading 0.01 sized lots and pocketing gains after just two or three pips. But it is becoming increasingly clear to me that this is not necessary. I should be locking in profits at five pips minimum instead, and this might increase to as much as ten pips, but almost certainly not beyond that.

Reversals must be confirmed by using a standard set of parameters before positions are entered, but other than this, there is little more to what I'm doing.

(P.S. Oh, and I almost forgot...generally speaking, I ONLY trade between 10 PM at night to 9:30 AM the next morning Pacific Standard Time. I find that there is usually not enough liquidity/momentum for me during other stretches of the 24-hour market cycle.)

 

[Turveyd]

After two years I'm finally starting to get really locked in on a very tightly controlled approach to applying my system. I have 15 of the major currency pairs on my watch list and trade them only when they reach the top or bottom of the daily price range as defined by a statistical analysis of historical data (what I call statistical support/resistance) or when they bounce off intraday statistical support/resistance to resume a trajectory in the direction of the intraday trend.

I have been extremely cautious thus far, trading 0.01 sized lots and pocketing gains after just two or three pips. But it is becoming increasingly clear to me that this is not necessary. I should be locking in profits at five pips minimum instead, and this might increase to as much as ten pips, but almost certainly not beyond that.

Reversals must be confirmed by using a standard set of parameters before positions are entered, but other than this, there is little more to what I'm doing.

(P.S. Oh, and I almost forgot...generally speaking, I ONLY trade between 10 PM at night to 9:30 AM the next morning Pacific Standard Time. I find that there is usually not enough liquidity/momentum for me during other stretches of the 24-hour market cycle.)

You got to let them run further, my first few trades start off that way 5pts $50, then later on a nice +$350 trade, much nicer

all I do it, wait for 20sma to have a direction, then I've got a range base on 10sma High and Low seperately +0.03% then I trade that range with 20's direction, avoiding choppy times as much as possible.

Forex used to be tradeable 24/5, So guess your trading China / Jpy then into Europes FX open then, too early for me 5am start.

 

[expiated]

Saturday - July 11, 2020

This is the real deal now, and I am currently of the opinion that 1.8% profit per day compounded over 220 days is not going to be ambitious enough, so I am making 5% my new goal. This "should" be achievable by slowly increasing my take-profit targets as I become more confident that they will be hit before price can turn, or without price turning, against me.

2 pips... 5 pips... 10 pips... forget about this my friend! You should (I believe) be using the upper and lower bands from one or both of the following pair of dynamic adaptive price range envelopes to help you gauge approximately where you might anticipate exiting the positions you enter following pullbacks. Yes, it will require you to monitor your positions minute-by-minute. But, is this not what you were beginning to get into the swing of doing toward the end of last week anyway, with your becoming more and more used to it as each day passed?

 

[expiated]

Friday, July 24, 2020

Is it just me or are you resetting your account almost weekly. You will never have something that is 100% static and "ready", the results you get on your journey are your profits. Modifications are part of it. If you're doing this just for entertainment, it's fine.

It might very well be that d08 is spot on. But I don’t think so. The fact of the matter is, if I set making money as my top priority—then I make money. For example, even though the trading has been sporadic and on most days, infrequent or even nonexistent, since June 9th I have made $540.06 in my Binary dot com virtual account without resetting it—a 5% return on my “initial” investment in a month and a half—and with the developments delineated below, a $100 a day daily return should now become quite routine.

This is because, for that particular account, the goal since June 9th has been to walk away with a net gain on every single day of trading.

However, since 2018, a $100 balance in my OANDA live trading account has not been enough for me to get ahead of significant expenses life throws my way every now and then from time to time. But it might help, at least a little, if I can do with Numerical Price Prediction what differentiation does to optimize calculus problems.

At this point, trading for me is like a puzzle where I have all the pieces and now I simply need to juxtapose them correctly. Nick McDonald conceptualizes technical analysis tools as ingredients that are of no use to a trader without a recipe. If you simply throw together all the ingredients that make a particular kind of cake, you will only end up with a big mess in the end. But if you add precise amounts of each, and manipulate them according to exact specifications, you can end up with something that is quite tasty.

My goal is to optimize solutions to my trading by doing the same thing with waves, cycles, slopes and envelopes that differentiation does with function equations, domains, critical numbers and endpoints to optimize solutions in calculus. If I’m still doing this a year from now, then I will have clearly been wrong about this. But, I can already “see” that I may be right, and might presently have something that is indeed approaching at least 90% static and "ready.”

The results I have gotten on my journey have been my reward. But, my (potential) profits are what is seen represented in the above virtual account. I am not just doing this for entertainment and in fact, currently have several hundred dollars set aside to add to my OANDA account if and when things actually do prove themselves to be static and “ready.” I am also seriously considering moving to Uruguay perhaps around the end of this year (with a few thousand dollars by then) to trade a live account via Binary dot com, provided it proves feasible and practical given the legalities and infrastructure here and there.

So what optimization am I talking about?

1. Well, for one thing, I believe that I have corrected the envelopes I “perfectly” calibrated months ago (if not longer than that) to accurately define the day range on my daily charts, but which I subsequently transferred incorrectly to my sixty- and five-minute chart setups.
2. Moreover, there was an extremely important baseline initially represented by a particular moving average on my five minute charts way back in November of 2015, but which has vacillated by as much as 15 periods over the last five years. However, that baseline is now set in stone as part of a cluster of three other proprietary moving averages extrapolated from my one-hour charts.
3. And finally, the problem of calculating with 100% certainty when an asset has reversed its day-to-day trend on lower-time frame charts before it shows up on higher-time-frame charts appears to have been solved.

These three developments, along with other more nuanced adjustments, I believe will totally eliminate 0.01-lot-sized losses of more than $1.00 and virtually eliminate pretty much any other losses altogether. If this proves true, I will begin trading several hundred dollars in my OANDA account next month rather than the mere $100 I am trading now, and debate whether to move out of the USA to begin trading via Binary dot com around the end of 2020.

 

[expiated]

Saturday / July 25, 2020

These three developments, along with other more nuanced adjustments, I believe will totally eliminate 0.01-lot-sized losses of more than $1.00 and virtually eliminate pretty much any other losses altogether.

According to Post #404, it was on May 4th that I returned to trading my live OANDA account, and in reviewing the image from that day, it is clear to me that the bold pale green moving average plotted on the corresponding chart is too lagging for me to have been giving it any kind of consideration in my decision-making process whatsoever...

The current configuration (with the day-range envelopes omitted) is not at all dissimilar, but has a better focus...

...which should theoretically lead to greater accuracy, smaller losses, and a nearly perfect success rate (provided that I "manipulate the recipe's ingredients" according to the directions)!

 

[expiated]

...with the developments delineated below, a $100 a day daily return should now become quite routine.

I missed the above-stated goal from Post #415 by $12.03...

 

[expiated]

Wednesday / July 29, 2020 / 12:50 PM PST

My goal is to optimize solutions to my trading by doing the same thing with waves, cycles, slopes and envelopes that differentiation does with function equations, domains, critical numbers and endpoints to optimize solutions in calculus. If I’m still doing this a year from now, then I will have clearly been wrong about this. But, I can already “see” that I may be right, and might presently have something that is indeed approaching at least 90% static and "ready.”

I am now “happy” with everything on my charts. The re-calibrated day range envelopes (not plotted on the image below) appear to indeed be valid and accurate now. I am also content to leave the crucial baseline that I have readjusted by as much as 15 periods over the past five years where it is presently set, and it looks like the methodology for calculating with a high degree of certainty when an asset has reversed its day-to-day trend on lower-time frame charts before it shows up on higher-time-frame charts is also valid.

Predictions based on interpretations of this forecast model are resulting in trades that are successful more than 80% of the time, easily, and given that these parameters were generated from the best of the past along with corrections to what were hopefully the last remaining errors in my numbers, I’m trusting I will be able to leave them as is from here on out.

 

[expiated]

POSSIBLE MILESTONE:

I think there is a chance that I might have finally solved what has been a puzzle for me and come up with an approach to combining an understanding of both shorter- and longer-term price action to more easily generate 5% daily returns rather than a mere 1.8%...

 

[expiated]

Wednesday / Midnight Pacific Standard Time / September 16, 2020

I think there is a chance that I might have finally solved what has been a puzzle for me and come up with an approach to combining an understanding of both shorter- and longer-term price action to more easily generate 5% daily returns rather than a mere 1.8%...

Starting with this 24-hour market cycle, there is a single setup that I have begun trading almost exclusively, which is to enter positions when I see a simultaneous reversal in the 15- and 30-minute baselines. I have primarily been taking a nap since the open of the Asian session, yet have already managed a 3.5% return in my live account (I am only just now opening the demo platform)...

Using this approach, losing trades should almost disappear, so my main goal now will be to extend my take-profit targets from scalping just a couple of pips profit at a time to more like five to thirty pips per trade under the right circumstances.