1.8% Profit per Day Compounded over 220 Days

[expiated]

I just did the math to convert the baseline from my finalized one-hour charts down to yesterday's one-minute chart and discovered that yesterday's orange and yellow baselines were extremely inaccurate.

I have now plotted three standard moving averages to approximate the mathematically generated accurate baseline (to save memory) and replaced my dynamic adaptive price range envelopes with adjusted standard ones (again, to save memory, and because being so precise in this respect is no longer so important) which should improve my decision-making process...

 

[expiated]

Thursday / March 26, 2020 / 10:15 AM PST

I have replaced the blue short-term baseline with an associated/correlated moving average envelope divided into three layers and added a (black and red) instantaneous moving average.

 

[expiated]

Friday / March 27, 2020 / 2:15 AM PST

What is the difference between the “finalized” version of your five-minute chart setup from the past two or three weeks (on the left) and the one you just modified based on your “finalized” one-minute chart configuration (on the right)?

You can’t see it on these charts because they are too small, but if you zoom in you will find they are pretty much the same at the micro level. The short-term standard simple moving average envelope with three levels used to define the short-term price range and to help determine entry and exit points on the new chart does more-or-less the exact same thing as the lowest three (adaptive) envelopes on the past “finalized” version.

The important thing to note here, which is born out on both charts, is that at the five-minute level you are reversing your positions (or should be reversing your positions) every time there is a reversal in the instantaneous moving average. On the one-minute chart configuration, this amounts to the crossover and slope of the four-by-three indicator (try to remember to what this refers) which is essentially the same as the standard “spiritual-number-based” simple moving average (if you can manage not to forget what you mean by this as well).

Where there IS a significant difference is in the fact that the “finalized” five-minute chart setup is lacking the overall intraday bias baseline(s) added to the one-minute configuration based on the hourly setup and translated to this time frame, so I would suggest you add these to your “finalized” version of the five-minute charts. (I might also add that the bold black dynamic adaptive price range envelope appears to do a much better job of defining short-term statistical support and resistance than the standard simple moving average envelopes on the right do.)

(P.S. I just noticed that using the standard envelops, it appears one should use the an inner and outer band when heading lower, and the alternative inner and outer band when climbing higher.)

 

[expiated]

Where there IS a significant difference is in the fact that the “finalized” five-minute chart setup is lacking the overall intraday bias baseline(s) added to the one-minute configuration based on the hourly setup and translated to this time frame, so I would suggest you add these to your “finalized” version of the five-minute charts.

With this addition the "finalized" version of the five-minute configuration is superior in that it is much easier to gauge where the crests and troughs of the "micro waves/cycles" are likely to be located. If you are seeing what you think you are seeing, trading cycles rather than simply trading the trend is KEY! It is the difference between racking up gains immediately or having to wait several minutes or hours. It is the difference between maximizing profit and minimizing losses.

You can do this on a five-minute chart, but you would have to do so based on position/structure, which lacks a certain amount of accuracy. Again, to maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of your trading, you MUST use one-minute charts to pinpoint exact entry and exit levels.

 

[expiated]

TRADING NOISE...

I recognize I'm no genius, or even all that smart, and there are a lot of folks out there, professionals and retail traders alike, who have forgotten more about trading that I will ever learn...nonetheless, I am at this point thoroughly convinced that all the stuff I read in the past about using one-minute charts being the equivalence of "trading noise" has very little basis in reality.

What I have come to recognize between 2011 and 2020 is that what goes on at the one-minute level—the behavior of price action—can be quantified to a very significant extent. Moreover, monitoring this activity on an ongoing basis can, I believe, enable one to interpret what is happening from moment to moment with a high degree of clarity.

Though I made three mistakes during today's efforts, I did so in the interest of "finalizing my one-minute protocol...

In at least one case, I was looking at a five-minute chart rather one-minute to evaluate a theory. In another, it might have been that I was doing something else simultaneously and was therefore unable to wait for confirmation to trigger my position entry with maximum precision. I also think at least one of the losses was due to my having not yet established the proper protocol.

In any event, with the finalization of my sixty- and five-minute chart setups, and the hopeful culmination of revelations and insights from which I've benefited between the summer of 2017 to this morning, I look forward to continuing to use the possibly final touches on my one-minute methodology and go back to just trading my system, as I started to do a couple of weeks ago, without any longer needing to look for ways in which I might improve it.

(P.S. Also, I just realized today is Friday, and I have typically found trading on Friday's to generally be notoriously difficult, so that I am always happy with any result on a Friday [or Monday] that ends in profit territory.)

 

[Sekiyo]

Noise is just variance I believe.
You can compress minutes into hours,
Hours into days, into months, into quarters...

But it’s relative on your time frame.
I believe there is an other side to the coin.
There is no best scale. But there are right ones.
It can also be too long or abnormally large, macro.

I also trade the 1 minute, I can zoom out.
There is some level of chirurgical accuracy.
If it were only noise then we wouldn’t use it.
But one zoom into the fractals of the markets,
And get some pretty accurate price entry or exit.

Keep up the good job !

 

[expiated]

NEW ONE-MINUTE PROTOCOL

Have these five questions memorized by Sunday. You should run through (and answer) all five of them in your mind every time you are considering executing a trade and before entering any given position:

1. Where are the two (2) four-candlestick moving averages in relation to the short-term (red) baseline?
2. What are the slopes of the short-term, intermediate (blue and green moving average cluster), and longer-term (yellow brick road) baselines and how flat or steep are they?
3. Where are these three (3) baselines in relation to each another?
4. Where is price located within the immediate price range?
5. Where is price located within the intraday price range?

Consider where candlesticks are forming in relation to the four-candlestick moving averages and within the immediate price range to determine when and where to exit your trades/positions.

 

[expiated]

Sunday / April 5, 2020 / 8:30 PM PST

I finalized my one-hour chart setup about a month ago and I thought I had my five-minute charts finalized as well. But after working on a final configuration for the one-minute arrangement, I went back and made a couple of subtle changes to the five-minute based on the additional perspective. However, now that I'm satisfied with my one-minute charts too, there's nothing more to do except bide my time until I'm free to trade the fully developed system full-time.

This here is just playing around based on what the charts were telling me via position and structure, since I'm still waiting to use them in the "right" way...

 

[.sigma]

Noise is just variance I believe.
You can compress minutes into hours,
Hours into days, into months, into quarters...

But it’s relative on your time frame.
I believe there is an other side to the coin.
There is no best scale. But there are right ones.
It can also be too long or abnormally large, macro.

I also trade the 1 minute, I can zoom out.
There is some level of chirurgical accuracy.
If it were only noise then we wouldn’t use it.
But one zoom into the fractals of the markets,
And get some pretty accurate price entry or exit.

Keep up the good job !

@Sekiyo every time you post I read it.. I enjoy your thoughts.

idk how you guys trade 1 minute intervals tho.. must take extreme control and skill.

cheers!

 

[expiated]

idk how you guys trade 1 minute intervals tho.. must take extreme control and skill.

From my perspective, it’s a matter of just a few key guidelines. First of all, I need to recognize that it’s a hands-on endeavor. I cannot just set my stops and targets and walk away because the market is too dynamic and I have to be there to make adjustments—to do what the charts/numbers are telling me to do in real time.

Second, once I’ve identified my baseline (the yellow-green moving average) I am looking to only enter long positions when the vast majority of candlesticks are forming above it—especially if it is sloping upward, and looking to only enter short positions when the vast majority of candlesticks are forming below it—especially if it is sloping downward.

Then I am using the shorter-term moving averages (black, red, and blue) to tell me when to take profit and when to jump back in for more. In simplest terms, that’s about all there is to it.