Quote from ksharmon:
"Please Kendall, letâs put this one to rest. Not even Chuck Schumer thinks itâs a good idea so I canât see this getting any traction in the Senate and maybe not even in the House either. "
What we all should have learned is that there is very little difference between one Democrat and another, or for that matter, one Republican and another. When they vote, they basically vote in a unit these days.
Take this Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu. It sounded like she was more or less against the health bill, but her party bought her vote for a $200 Million deal with medicaid.
I would imagine that a Senator from New York or perhaps someone who represented Chicago, might have a problem with this bill. But let's face it, their only constituents aren't the exchange/trading folks. I certainly can imagine circumstances where they will be thrown under the bus, especially in these days of populism and anti-bank sentiment.
I certainly wouldn't recommend that anyone sit back, confident that it won't pass. I would work away at this every day like it was about to be passed tomorrow. Because in the final analysis, in the event it does pass we're all out of business. If there's even a small chance, I'm going to fight it. The frightening thing is to see the sentiment out there. No one understands how destructive this bill will actually be to the capital markets, not just the traders themselves.
For those of you who need some perspective, check out the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (I believe that was it's name). In those days we had tax provisions that provided tax shelter to those who took advantage. You invested money in an oil deal for instance, you got a major depletion writeoff on your taxes, which in some cases was so significant that you were able to write off your entire investment against your ordinary income. Same for real estate investment, you got a deduction for depreciation against your ordinary income. Computer deals, railroad cars etc etc., anything that could be depreciated or depleted in accordance with existing tax laws. Entire industries were involved in this, large companies. And of course, many investors in those days had bought apartment buildings strictly for the tax advantage.
With the passage of this Act, tax shelters ended. It broke an entire industry. Some large companies. Many individuals lost significant money in apartment buildings, etc.
And here's how it applies now. It was sold to the public by pointing out that large investors paid no tax, while all the little guys did. Hard to fight that one. It causes investment real estate prices to plummet. And of course, the who nature of investment changed at that point.
No one is looking at the impact on the capital works as a whole. They're only looking at what they think they can raise in revenues. But trust me, it's not just your job that ends, the capital markets will completely change without short-term traders. This is the point that needs to be pounded home.
If that spread widens to let's say $.50 from $.01 currently, then the cost to every investor of this transaction tax becomes 10X as much as the tax itself. Where do I get $.50??? This is a standard type of spread that existed back in the 70s and 80s when volume was a fraction of what it is today. And that's where volume is going if this tax is implemented.
OldTrader