1/4% Tax on all stock trades pushed in NY Times today

Quote from hopeful:

Is there any realistic possibility that this FTT will be retroactive? Now that's a truly scary thought.

Think for a second how many trades are made per day in one prop desk, let alone every prop desk/individual traders acct/regular brokerage accounts and tell me how a retroactive tax is even possible.

There is zero chance of a retroactive tax, but still very concerned about the extremely remote possibility of a future tax.
 
I don't know or remember if it had already been suggested, but when you type "Tobin tax", first result is wikipedia and what makes wikipedia great is that you can define/comment on this idea.

It took me 2 hours tonight to "pimp" french tobin tax description in wikipedia. There was so much errors( Summers supporter... ) and the guy who initially made the description was clearly a pro tax.

After tonight, french readers will be able to weigh pro and cons on Tobin tax( I have been exhaustive for sure on critcs...LOL ) and I suggest that you correct english wiki and keep it up to date( pro taxes had mentionned Adair Turner, I gave them Strauss Kahn and the IMF, Trichet, Swedish minister...).

So traders, pimp your wiki... but stay fair, it's an encyclopedia.
 
Brazil Stocks Plunge as Tax Saps Demand for IPOs, Homebuilders Share Business Exchange

By Paulo Winterstein and Camila Fontana

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian stocks plunged, extending the Bovespa’s drop since Oct. 19 to 11 percent, as a tax on share purchases sapped demand for homebuilders and metal producers fell on concern earnings don’t justify prices.

Cetip SA - Balcao Organizado de Ativos & Derivativos, Brazil’s biggest clearing house, tumbled as much as 14 percent in its first day of trade as the so-called IOF tax of 2 percent reduced demand from foreign investors. Homebuilders Rossi Residencial SA, Gafisa SA and Cyrela Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos & Participacoes fell more than 4.9 percent after recent rallies sent valuations near the highest levels in more than a year. Steelmaker Gerdau SA lost 7.2 percent after rival ArcelorMittal reported weaker-than-expected profit.

The Bovespa index declined 4.8 percent to 60,162.31. The stocks benchmark entered a correction, defined by a drop of 10 percent from the recent peak on Oct. 19, a 16-month high.

“The IOF was deadly for the bourse,” said Paulo Possas, who manages about $60 million as chief executive officer of Eagle Capital in Sao Paulo. “A drop that could have been 2 turned into a drop of 4. Someone that may have entered Brazil after a drop produced good prices now probably won’t come back to the market.”

Mexico’s Bolsa lost 2.2 percent today while Chile’s Ipsa declined 1.5 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slid 3.4 percent. The real fell 2 percent to 1.7793 against the dollar.

Cetip Plunges

Cetip, the fourth initial public offering in Brazil this year, plunged 9.5 percent to 11.76 reais. The share sale is Brazil’s 10th in the past five weeks as companies seek to tap into a rally that has sent the Bovespa up 60 percent this year.

“Clearly the first thing massacred by the lack of foreign investors are IPOs and Cetip had really bad luck in its timing,” said Possas.

The government on Oct. 19 imposed a 2 percent tax on foreign purchases of equity and fixed-income assets. The IOF tax was designed to stem the real’s rally against the dollar. The Brazilian currency has gained 30 percent this year, the most among the world’s 16 most-traded currencies.

Rossi paced a decline in homebuilders, slumping 6.2 percent to 11.30 reais. Cyrela, Brazil’s biggest homebuilder, fell 4.9 percent to 21.30 reais and Gafisa slid 7.8 percent to 25.56 reais. The companies were trading last week at the highest price relative to trailing earnings since at least June 2008. Cyrela raised 1.04 billion reais ($601.5 million) in the fourth real- estate company share sale in Brazil this month.

Foreign investors bought 72 percent of shares sold by Gafisa in its 2006 IPO. They snapped up 93 percent of shares sold in a secondary offering in 2007, according to exchange owner BM&FBovespa SA’s Web site. They bought more than 73 percent of Rossi shares sold in public offerings since 2006, and more than 72 percent of Cyrela shares, BM&FBovespa SA said.

Brazil Tax

“The market as a whole is still feeling the effects of the IOF, and foreign investment in this industry is extremely relevant,” Silvio Araujo, a real estate analyst at Lopes Filho & Associados in Rio de Janeiro, said in a phone interview yesterday.

Gerdau dropped 7.2 percent to 25.53 reais. ArcelorMittal operating income plus depreciation, impairment expenses and exceptional items totaled $1.59 billion, less than the $1.78 billion median of 15 analyst estimates Bloomberg compiled.

Steel consumption in Europe, ArcelorMittal’s biggest market, dropped 32 percent in the third quarter compared with a year earlier.

Growth Outlook

Copper fell for a third day in New York and London as the dollar strengthened and slumping equity markets fed speculation that economic growth is too weak to stimulate metals demand.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. today cut its third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product forecast to 2.7 percent from 3 percent, in a report distributed to clients dated today.

Vale SA, the biggest iron-ore producer, fell 4.5 percent to 37.85 reais. MMX Mineracao & Metalicos SA, the iron-ore producer controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, lost 9.3 percent to 10.85 reais. The Bloomberg Base Metals 3-Month Price Commodity Index dropped 3 percent.

Brazilian share valuations are not an “impediment” to further gains, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.

“Valuations are high by historical standards but are not an impediment to continued market performance in our view as earnings recovery builds and risk aversion falls further,” JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note to clients.

They said the IOF tax won’t stop the real’s appreciation against the dollar.

Real Decline

The real has dropped 3.5 percent against the dollar this week.

“In the very short term, the real should fall along with other currencies,’ said Paulo Nepomuceno, fixed income strategist at Coinvalores CCVM in Sao Paulo. ‘‘It probably will not go beyond 1.7 this year due to central bank actions and because many companies send royalties abroad in the fourth quarter, raising the demand for dollars.’’

To contact the reporter on this story: Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo at pwinterstein@bloomberg.net.
 
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