Quote from the1:
This would be one of the quickest ways for Obama to <b>increase</b> his approval rating. "We're gonna get those....those dam day traders. The ones who <b>caused</b> the market volatility in the fall of 2008. They were all selling short and we'll stop that with a tax!"
That will last about as long as it takes people to figure out that they are getting screwed. The average person will see their mutual fund fees rise, and any self-directed swing or position traders will see their commission costs rise by a factor of 5. That's not "getting the daytraders", that's getting the public. There are a lot of people that have their own trading accounts, and most of them are not daytraders, they are average Joes. Every single one of them is going to have a massive hate-on for Obama if this passes. With the thin margins of victory in any election these days, that's not good news for the Dems.
It comes down to how they sell it. 99% of the audience for this tax will come from non-day traders.
90% of the country is already decided in terms of who they vote for anyways. It's the middle class swing vote that matters. The types of people that have their own trading accounts, especially now that they are trying to do stuff on their own since getting slaughtered in their funds last year. I know a few people like that.
Ummmm...you think they'll be for it or against it?
Once they figure out what it is, against it. A stock trade that now costs $10 to buy 1000 shares of a $50 stock is now going to cost $50,000 x 0.001 + $10 = $60. That is SIX TIMES the normal commission cost. This is going to be popular? Every person with a self-directed account is going to vote Republican if this passes.
And anyways, how do you propose to exempt Goldman Sachs from this bill? Or do you seriously think that GS is going to pay this tax? If they pass the bill and give GS an exemption, can you see the public firestorm over this? Small investors pay tax, big wall street firms don't. That will go over like a lead balloon.
Besides, GS and other big firms need some retail idiots to take the other side of their trades. Higher taxes = less retail idiots trading = lower volume = smaller position sizing possible = lower profits. Sure they could manipulate the markets a bit easier maybe, but I'm not sure that would make up for the volume shortfall. Less retailers trading = harder markets as well, since more dummies are being removed, thereby raising the average intelligence per capita in the market.
I really don't see how this benefits one damn person. It's quite probably one of the stupidest bills I have ever heard of.
Would they choose this over higher income tax from the middle class?
I doubt it, but there are other creative ways they could try to get money that aren't this.
The TT is coming down the pipe. I sure hope you guys are polishing off the resume.
There are plenty of other places to trade in the world, even if they are dumb enough to pass this. Some country somewhere is going to have an exchange that will want your business in exchange for not taxing you, so I wouldn't worry about it. In bad times every country is going to be looking out for itself, and if the US is stupid enough to cede their place as the financial capital of the world, someone else will want to take it.