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Until proven otherwise I have to look at Friday as nothing more than a one-day relief rally. We have had several of those and they are always followed by massive sell-offs. The markets liked the new Treasury team and this may create some long term stability. However, I want to see the VIX...

I have to appreciate your conviction and courage during such a trying period and I was of the same mind you are until the past week or so when I began seeing things that have not been duplicated in history - not even in 1929. Scaling in on the thrusts down in the market may serve you very...

We are now in uncharted territory - SPX closed at 752 with a low of 747. This blew past the 2002 bear market low of 768. The fact that there was little, if any, support at the 768 low tells me we are not done dropping yet. This drop from the high of 1576 13 from 13 months ago is a 53%...

His info seems fine for trend trading and following the current momentum with trendlines and such... However, I think this type of info is missing the current environment's characteristics of a severely oversold market and the inherent mean reversion probabilities. We can wait for moving...

Here's another source for the PE ratio history on the S&P. Unfortunately it's only updated through the end of Sept. We know a lot (to the downside) has happened since then so I know the ratio should be lower than the reading Sept. 30. http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000%5C026.pdf

Took this direct quote out from an article from John Hussman "On the basis of the highest level of earnings at the 1972 market peak, the 1974 bear market trough occurred at a P/E multiple of about 10. Currently, the S&P 500 trades at about 10.3 times the level of earnings observed last year...

Here are some things you need to know if you feel WE HAVE NOT HIT THE BOTTOM and you believe "things are different this time": 1) In the 1929 crash we went down approximately 49% on the first thrust down and THEN REBOUNDED FOR A 50% BOUNCE OFF THAT LOW before heading down for further lows...

Here are some things you need to know if you feel WE HAVE HIT THE BOTTOM: 1) The average move in 12 months from the last 10 bear markets since 1929 is up 55% - not a bad 12 month return :D 2) The average distance from the top to the bottom of those 10 bear markets is exactly 49%. The...

Well, a couple of great sages that I follow closely and that have been the most objective say this is wrong - that WE HAVE NAILED THE BOTTOM and we did it on Thursday. Both Art Cashin and Art Hogan reluctantly agreed on Friday the bottom was likely put in on Thursday for the following reasons...

Down another 4% thus far today. As I noted earlier the 839 retest is clearly the ultimate destination for the S&P. Dow equivalent would be ~7800. Nothing to stop us now. Will the October 10th lows hold? Anybody's guess at this point. VIX is continuing to ride at 65 and there is no...

At this point I have to say I see nothing to stand in the way of a retest of 839 on the S&P from October 10th. We are no longer holding firm on the bad news. It is taking its toll and the VIX is now at 64 once again. I see nothing in the way of support out there between the current level...

I can only find the daily closing prices in 1929 period on the Prophet charts I get from ThinkorSwim.

Here's some research I did on the following: BEAR MARKET STUDY S&P 1929 TO PRESENT Date of Top Sep-29 March-37 December-61 November-68 January-73 November-80 August-87 July-98 March-00 October-07 Very worthwhile info to study regarding the past bear markets, how long...

Quote by Matthew McCall that sums up my view of this past week: "The fact the market rallied on very poor economic numbers coupled with a strong last hour of trading is one reason to smile this weekend. The 4% loss over the week is no reason to frown, but we should be ready to act. Keep in...

Suggest you do some research. Velez used to be the Pres. of Pristine, left under some mysterious circumstances, formed Velez Capital, and then suddenly came back last month and took over Pristine again. He quickly pushed out Greg Capra (his old Pristine partner) and Ron Wagner. Now all of a...

It's true the last 2 days were relatively violent down days. Shows there is still panic and caution in the markets. Nonetheless we held at support from 10/15 and 10/16. Also, if today holds up through the finish we will have staved off the consecutive down days to 2 after 5 consecutive up...

Today we have the typical reaction in the "buy the rumor (Obama to win) - sell the news (he officially won)" cycle. We are having a profit taking yet very orderly sell-off this morning as I anticipated. Although many business leaders endorsed McCain, they seem Ok with the Obama decision and...

VIX went all the way down and touched its 50 day Moving Average (45) today before bouncing off and closing at 47.73. This is the first VIX close below 50 since October 3rd. I would expect the VIX to trend sideways from here since its drop down out of the 60's and 70's of the past few weeks...

We are currently breaking the 10/20 and 10/21 intermediate term highs to the upside so we have broken through some resistance. Assuming this holds we are off to 1044 on the SPX or 1067 on the S&P futures. Election squabbles could put a lid on the uptrend if Obama or McCain protest the...

Hey guys, Here's a fantastic article discussing the need for an open mind during turbulent times like this. Chris Ciovacco also discusses the past bear markets and what happened afterwards and how you can gauge the market activity. HIGHLY suggested reading! Here's an excerpt: "During...