How Do We Nail the Bottom?

Oct lows won't hold.
Too many problems out there for the economy and markets.
And it's all getting worse.
Gov has to bail out Auto, Homeowners, Wallstreet...etc. retail stinks, the consumer is dead and not coming back anytime soon. Bankruptcy's are just getting started. Add it all up, The economy is FUBAR.
ALL This tells me we have no chance of holding.
 
Boo hoo hoo stocks falling again

we should close green today

I can sense it because the trading range isn't tight, but sloppy.

October 10th lows still holding, too.
 
Nice reversal on volume today. The shorts are raking in their profits and institutions are speeding up their purchases, while the talking heads on CNBC continue to urge the public to keep their money in their mattresses, while their pals accumulate shares. Thanks guys. A mini bull is underway, which is the beginning of a longer cyclical bull that will last until the Dow retraces approx. 60% - then look out below!

Rich
 
I agree with Rich. This is a bear rally up to 1200 for S&P. After that, we will take out the oct lows. The public will be suckered into the rally towards the top. It will get ugly. But hey, that's not until next year so enjoy the rally up while we can!
 
Quote from 1flyfisher:

Oct lows won't hold.
Too many problems out there for the economy and markets.
And it's all getting worse.
Gov has to bail out Auto, Homeowners, Wallstreet...etc. retail stinks, the consumer is dead and not coming back anytime soon. Bankruptcy's are just getting started. Add it all up, The economy is FUBAR.
ALL This tells me we have no chance of holding.
More...

Well, a couple of great sages that I follow closely and that have been the most objective say this is wrong - that WE HAVE NAILED THE BOTTOM and we did it on Thursday. Both Art Cashin and Art Hogan reluctantly agreed on Friday the bottom was likely put in on Thursday for the following reasons:

1) Thursday had the feeling of a capitulation sell off with an abundance of gloom and doom everywhere on the floor that day

2) The V shaped rally that day was extremely strong and virulent with good volume

3) It's the 3rd time we've explored the lows and held - each time with a big bounce off the bottom.

4) Each consecutive touch and hold adds strength to the support area

I can't believe Art Cashin finally gave in and admitted he thinks we got all the pieces we need to declare it the bottom for at least the next few months. He has stubbornly refused to declare the bottom up to this poiint.
 
Here are some things you need to know if you feel WE HAVE HIT THE BOTTOM:

1) The average move in 12 months from the last 10 bear markets since 1929 is up 55% - not a bad 12 month return :D

2) The average distance from the top to the bottom of those 10 bear markets is exactly 49%. The low we put in on Thursday is 48% from the top of October 2007. Coincidence?? You decide.

3) There were 2 retests of the approximate low in the 2002/03 bottoming area of that bear market. Again - sound familiar??
 
Here are some things you need to know if you feel WE HAVE NOT HIT THE BOTTOM and you believe "things are different this time":

1) In the 1929 crash we went down approximately 49% on the first thrust down and THEN REBOUNDED FOR A 50% BOUNCE OFF THAT LOW before heading down for further lows until the market ultimately sold off 86% over 34 months.

2) April and then May of 1932 (same bear market) were the 2 worst consecutive months in the stock market with a decline of 38%.

3) The index then exploded from July 1932 to August 1932 with a 90% GAIN :cool:

Do we have to be spot on right about the exact bottom here? No - not necessarily exact. But we do need a premise for our trade plan and the courage of our convictions to step in and commit dollars to our premise during times where many are scared to step on the playing field (and understandably so - it's human nature not to want to touch the iron right after you just got burned).
 
Quote from netedge:

Do we have to be spot on right about the exact bottom here? No - not necessarily exact. But we do need a premise for our trade plan and the courage of our convictions to step in and commit dollars to our premise during times where many are scared to step on the playing field (and understandably so - it's human nature not to want to touch the iron right after you just got burned).
More...

Excellent. The downtrend was over for
Dow, Nasdaq, Sp500 and quite a few sectors I tracked last Thursday. I believe the risk/reward is excellent for long in months ahead, in particular if the long entry is very close to the intraday low of the last Thursday. However, I won't plunge like Livermore, just in case "this time is different and the markets have a further 50% drop from here".
 
Hey Guys,

this is a decent thread.

Regarding the S&P 500, I think it shall be difficult to make any meaningful move higher until we SATISFY the subconscious need to "hit bottom" as defined by the 2002 lows.

Trading the Dec. ES, I'm looking at 765 area to establish any long positions (Or buy a few D.O.M. calls).

The chart's a GORGEOUS failed double top. If we break 765, I'm gonna have to look at the (big) S&P continuous chart going back decades...scary proposition.

I think Crude oil will find support near $48 - $52. If the bulls don't defend this level successfully, we could be looking at $35. This may only be possible if global DEFLATION continues & the USDX rises above 92.50.

What are you fellas calling for NEAR TERM bottoms in:

S&P Future?
Crude future?
Gold future?
 
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