The futures are up huge. The spy is up 3.3%..the buy orders came after the final trade on the S&P 500. There were so many buy orders the spy is 1% higher than the S&P 500 close. That means a rally is guaranteed on monday unless the asian and european markets fail. But that wont happen. The real value of the dow is 60 points higher, too This is huge. The buyers have not faltered one bit. next week be monster buying.
How Do We Nail the Bottom?
- Thread starter netedge
- Start date
far from it. In 12 months things will be back to normal
Here's some research I did on the following:
BEAR MARKET STUDY S&P 1929 TO PRESENT
Date of Top
Sep-29
March-37
December-61
November-68
January-73
November-80
August-87
July-98
March-00
October-07
Very worthwhile info to study regarding the past bear markets, how long they lasted, how low they dropped and how far they bounced back 12 months after the low.
You'll find the answers in the attached file. MORAL TO THE STORY - All Bear Markets are not created equal
BEAR MARKET STUDY S&P 1929 TO PRESENT
Date of Top
Sep-29
March-37
December-61
November-68
January-73
November-80
August-87
July-98
March-00
October-07
Very worthwhile info to study regarding the past bear markets, how long they lasted, how low they dropped and how far they bounced back 12 months after the low.
You'll find the answers in the attached file. MORAL TO THE STORY - All Bear Markets are not created equal
My hypothesis of things to come:
1) This recession rebound will be much different and much faster than others because of the unprecedented amount of money that is being pumped into the worldwide monetary base.
2) However, since the money is being borrowed at ridiculously low interest rates (i.e., under 2%), there will not be an ensuing problem of inflation. This flooding of money into the system will primarily hurt savers, people on fixed income, and countries that are forced to fund deficits, because they have no choice (e.g. China, Middle-east countries, etc.), however, it will cause a global asset inflation. Not as bad as the previous one, since governments will prohibit excess leveraging allowed by.
3) It is impossible to predict a bottom, however, the professionals are going out of their way to spread fear among the public via their analyst calls (e.g., GM target is now zero), "leaks to the press", and the steady parade of doom and gloom on CNBC, and the Wall Street Journal. A sure sign that the professionals want to begin accumulating at cheaper prices.
4) All of the money entering into the system will eventually move into assets, causing a sizable rebound in all asset classes. I estimate between 25 and 50%. However, the stock market will not reach prior highs (within a couple of years), since baby-boomers and others will flee the market as they cash in their holdings and are happy with reduced losses.
5) The stock market will flounder with other sizable dips and rebounds for many years, going essential nowhere, until de-leveraging has run its course and institutional and personal savings are become more in-line with debt. This environment will put to rest the ridiculous "buy and hold" philosophy and put financial planners out of business as they should be.
1) This recession rebound will be much different and much faster than others because of the unprecedented amount of money that is being pumped into the worldwide monetary base.
2) However, since the money is being borrowed at ridiculously low interest rates (i.e., under 2%), there will not be an ensuing problem of inflation. This flooding of money into the system will primarily hurt savers, people on fixed income, and countries that are forced to fund deficits, because they have no choice (e.g. China, Middle-east countries, etc.), however, it will cause a global asset inflation. Not as bad as the previous one, since governments will prohibit excess leveraging allowed by.
3) It is impossible to predict a bottom, however, the professionals are going out of their way to spread fear among the public via their analyst calls (e.g., GM target is now zero), "leaks to the press", and the steady parade of doom and gloom on CNBC, and the Wall Street Journal. A sure sign that the professionals want to begin accumulating at cheaper prices.
4) All of the money entering into the system will eventually move into assets, causing a sizable rebound in all asset classes. I estimate between 25 and 50%. However, the stock market will not reach prior highs (within a couple of years), since baby-boomers and others will flee the market as they cash in their holdings and are happy with reduced losses.
5) The stock market will flounder with other sizable dips and rebounds for many years, going essential nowhere, until de-leveraging has run its course and institutional and personal savings are become more in-line with debt. This environment will put to rest the ridiculous "buy and hold" philosophy and put financial planners out of business as they should be.
Netedge have you or anyone else ever managed to find daily OHLC and volume for the days of 1929?
Quote from netedge:
Here's some research I did on the following:
BEAR MARKET STUDY S&P 1929 TO PRESENT
Date of Top
Sep-29
March-37
December-61
November-68
January-73
November-80
August-87
July-98
March-00
October-07
Very worthwhile info to study regarding the past bear markets, how long they lasted, how low they dropped and how far they bounced back 12 months after the low.
You'll find the answers in the attached file. MORAL TO THE STORY - All Bear Markets are not created equal
At this point I have to say I see nothing to stand in the way of a retest of 839 on the S&P from October 10th. We are no longer holding firm on the bad news. It is taking its toll and the VIX is now at 64 once again.
I see nothing in the way of support out there between the current level of 887 and the 839 low. So now the real question is whether the 830ish low holds once again or do we break through to the down side for a run at 768 from here?
A market move to the 2002 low of 768 would represent a 51% drop in the value of the markets in what could be less than 18 months. The next stop past 768 could be the upward trendline with 3 touches starting in 1942 that would take us down to S&P 530 - a 66% drop!!
We are already well below the 200 month moving average (995) which we never came close to approaching during 2000-2002.
The last time we dropped below the 200 month moving average was 1974. During that period the S&P dropped from a high of 120 to a low of 62 so it was a 48% drop from January of '73 to October (why does it always have to be October?) of 1974.
We are now back to 1997 prices on the S&P today. :eek:
I see nothing in the way of support out there between the current level of 887 and the 839 low. So now the real question is whether the 830ish low holds once again or do we break through to the down side for a run at 768 from here?
A market move to the 2002 low of 768 would represent a 51% drop in the value of the markets in what could be less than 18 months. The next stop past 768 could be the upward trendline with 3 touches starting in 1942 that would take us down to S&P 530 - a 66% drop!!
We are already well below the 200 month moving average (995) which we never came close to approaching during 2000-2002.
The last time we dropped below the 200 month moving average was 1974. During that period the S&P dropped from a high of 120 to a low of 62 so it was a 48% drop from January of '73 to October (why does it always have to be October?) of 1974.
We are now back to 1997 prices on the S&P today. :eek:
While it looks very scary, that is exactly how it should look near lows. We seem to be holding very firm despite an endless string of bad news. Very comforting. A test may come, but volume is coming in as the market churns. Cash on the sidelines is getting itchy, since 1% interest rates are nothing to write home about. Whether people are scared numb and will no longer sell, out of numbness, remains to be seen. Big buyers are there, waiting to pounce, as they continue to scare the public with bad news, hoping to get a better price.
Emotion is difficult to read, but the way I read it, there is a good chance we will see a significant run-up before year's end. However, it will turn again, and possibly re-test lows, unless significant positive housing news begins to make the headlines. Lenders seem to want to do anything to keep people in their houses - as does the government.
Rich
Down another 4% thus far today. As I noted earlier the 839 retest is clearly the ultimate destination for the S&P. Dow equivalent would be ~7800. Nothing to stop us now.
Will the October 10th lows hold? Anybody's guess at this point. VIX is continuing to ride at 65 and there is no relief to the selloff. All the pressure is to the downside. No sectors are resisting at this time.
It seems as if the continuing "bailouts" are not staving off the panic selloff. Perhaps it's time the US consider putting a plug on the never-ending bailout requests (read here GM, Ford, etc. that threw all their might behind the SUV strategy in recent years while we were totally dependent on foreign oil). There comes a point that the US govt. itself needs to hold companies accountable for their own mistakes. Unlike the banks and AIG - losing an automaker will not potentially freeze the US economy - we'll just keep buying Toyotas like we already have been.
Will the October 10th lows hold? Anybody's guess at this point. VIX is continuing to ride at 65 and there is no relief to the selloff. All the pressure is to the downside. No sectors are resisting at this time.
It seems as if the continuing "bailouts" are not staving off the panic selloff. Perhaps it's time the US consider putting a plug on the never-ending bailout requests (read here GM, Ford, etc. that threw all their might behind the SUV strategy in recent years while we were totally dependent on foreign oil). There comes a point that the US govt. itself needs to hold companies accountable for their own mistakes. Unlike the banks and AIG - losing an automaker will not potentially freeze the US economy - we'll just keep buying Toyotas like we already have been.