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Need a couple weeks for this to stabilize. Not swinging any longs for a while. Market crash risk is pretty high these next couple months. About 60%+ by my estimate. However, even if we crash, we will recover back to these price levels again. Pattern is kinda identical to mid 2007, except...

Bull markets like these are kind of ridiculous... They generally maintain a 99%+ probability of prices testing higher levels than the previous eight months over each two months... Until they eventually break! Eg... You have a 99%+ chance of losing if you short at six month average prices(Where...

The odds are like 70%+ that this is just a nasdaq consolidation phase... Could last months and months! Odds of testing new highs within a year is over 99% just looking at technicals... Kind of foolish to call a top on April 5th... Better to call it back in mid march! That top has a coin flip...

You found a strategy for free on the web that has a 70%+ edge, or did you tweak and tune the strategy to that level? I was just referring to stuff that is out there... Untweaked, unfiltered. Also, I am not referring to win rate... I'm referring to the profit expectancy of the edge over...

There are no easy edges... The most you will find around on the web are 52-54% edges at best. Getting anything better requires hard work... Developing your own tools, methodology, and coming up with and testing new theories. With some serious screen time and experience you can filter down some...

My analysis says late summer/fall we get a bear market. A divergence is starting to form. However, I doubt this bull market will fully end until like 2016. Odds are not on it. All we can be sure of is... It will eventually crash, and it will eventually rally again. Enough said! lol...

Generally you see volatility decline during the middle stages of rallies so it appears that dips are being bought more and more aggressively. Let me put things in perspective... Four market days ago on March 4 2014... The high was 1876. The market closed three days later on Friday at 1879...

What HFT uses for "technical analysis" is more just short term focused mathmatical quant formulas, but it's still defined as technical analysis.

Oh, and here is something to mull over. Short term traders that lose may not be losing to each other overall, they might mostly be losing to lower elasticity order flow. They may lose overall just due to the fact a good part of the market is not very elastic, and they are the most highly...

This is a visual explanation of HFT exploratory trading and how it works. This is a simplification of the "Nanex Exploratory Trading" articles that the average Joe can understand. This isn't unique to HFT. This was done regularly by Salomon Brothers and other large players in the markets. I am...

The price action after the move does tell you a lot. If the market continues to steadily sell off... People on the sidelines are starting to come in and sell and/or buyers are getting scared off. If price doesn't continue to steadily sell off, it's bullish and a good time to look for a long...

Yep, just as I thought... Price is king. Now, lets talk about agents (traders/bots) with active vs passive influence on supply and demand. If you short as price is going down, or buy as price is going up, or vice versa... You act as a active influence on supply or demand. However, what...

Kudos! :D That is a nice simple way to explain it. Now, find a good image for him for when he asks about an upward spike. The short capitulation!

Oh, and as for why I say stop cluster... I have an objective technical reason for saying that. It occurred at a price level where there was a high likelihood of trailing stops. (Note, this is a SPX 5m chart, not ES.) Edit: LoL... I just realized I was looking at the wrong index on my charts...

To make sense of a dot chart out minds have to go through a process of connecting the dots to detect if there is a pattern in the dots. Even if we are not looking for a pattern, our mind will still try to find one. It always tries to find patterns. Lines to represent trends, choppy price ranging...

Visually, it is much easier for humans to interpret a line chart though. Our visual processing is optimized for lines and shapes.... Not dots.

"Smart Money" is one of the biggest and most widely accepted myths out there. There are big prop traders and bank trading desks that pull in steady money, but they are not smart money. They are just skilled big traders. Most of the big orders hitting the market that people try to track...

Someone holding a large long position panicked when price started to drop. Well, actually... Looking at my charts... Looks like that move hit a pocket of trailing stops. Doesn't really matter which it was. Same results. Oh, re-read your question. Liquidity on the L2 is mostly false. Just HFT...

The buying and selling by a markets participants determines supply and demand and sets price. However, what determines what causes participants to buy or sell? In my opinion, it's primarily price. People are a bunch of price worshipers. Price and it's changes over time are the primary driver of...

I have noticed a flaw in a lot of trading systems and technical analysis... A lot of strategies and trading systems seem to be designed just for a specific signal or market conditions... Or market conditions in the past. Hardly anyone is looking at the bigger picture! It's a changing world...