Easy edges in the markets for retail participants?

[ras72]

How do you define a retail trader? Is it based on AUM or trading in a customer account vs a BD account?...a customer portfolio margin account... prop accounts...

I am not familiar with the subject.
I was referring largely to individual, unprofessional mkt. participants and expressing my perplexity at a particular form of trading.

 

[NoDoji]

I would give a dollar for A1 and one cent for DF20
And I sell X31 for one mil.

I've given away A1 here on ET several times with graphic illustrations, the early stage of it just this past week, in fact.

I've also given it away to at least a dozen people via Skype.

There are iterations of it in Bob Volman's book.

SteveH uses it to add to winners in a strong trend.

It feels really difficult at the hard right edge because in its earliest stage it feels like a failed breakout of a trend line and in a strong trend it feels like the end of the trend.

Seems like everyone's looking for things that feel easy. If you do the work, the detailed analyses, you eventually learn to do what you know rather than what you feel.

When you know, and you know that you know, your confidence changes. What some people might deem as high risk, you understand trading as a simple matter of probabilities. You have learned through the pass of pain, to train your rational mind to consistently execute a predefined systematic response, when your emotional mind may be trying to compel you into doing something else. You are the discipline, you are consistent, you do not need to look outside of yourself to find them in any method, or in any person. You carry them with you, wherever you are.

 

[NoDoji]

Would you mind posting your spreadsheet template for manual backtesting?

I tracked the following:

Context (such as trend or range, range of signal bars, proximity to trend lines/channel lines, etc.)

MAE/MFE from entry (with and without retraces on the 1-min chart).

Results with various fixed targets and stop losses based on the MAE/MFE research.

Trade management options such as break even after N ticks, fixed profit targets, flexible profit targets (trailing stops), technical profit targets based on context, and stop-and-reverse situations.

 

[austinp]

Example of a normal, run-of-mill trading session circa 2013-2014 using TF symbol for example...

Short 1195.0 > stop 1196.0 at fill on a pullback to key resistance zone. Price drops to 1193, trail stop to 1195 entry. Stop is hit for par result on a snapback to 1197.

Short 1195.0 > stop 1196.0 at fill, same trade. Price drops to 1194, 1196 stop is hit for (-$100) result on a snapback to 1197.9

Long 1198.5 > stop 1197.5 at fill on pullback to key support zone later on. Price pops to 1199.8, stop is hit (-$100) result on plunge back thru 1196.

Short 1195.5 > stop 1196.5 at fill, same trade as first two, now following a failed price breakout up. Price drops to 1194, short one more > stop 1195.0 and move stop on initial 1195.5 short to 1195.4 par.

Now currently short 1195.5 > stop 1195.4 and short 1194.0 > stop 1195.0

Price drops to 1188+ and stops for both short positions are trailed to 1189.0 which is hit and trades are closed. +$650 first short and +$500 second short = $1150 gross gain. Subtract prior two loss stops @ -$100 each and net result before costs +$950 for each contract traded. Not quite noon est yet. Done for the day.

Multiply those results by additional contracts worked. +$1,900 for two contracts, +$3,800 for four contracts, etc.

Remainder of the session, price channels sideways from 1189 to 1185 thru 4:15pm est with no further movement than a lone directional surge move.

**

That is trading in the real world today, circa 2013-14 to date. Feel free to substitute ES, NQ, CL, XYZ and adjust the math according to average price range differences.

 

[Pigsky]

No easy edges or easy anything in trading

How many people around your town have quit work to day trade for a living? None that i can see around anywhere.

Personally I only trade long term now......... and have some ideas that seem solid...... i think i can be net profitable (no thoughts of riches yet) over time and i dont think i will ever go back to day trading no matter what

i only read day trading stuff for entertainment so dont really care who is for real and who is fake anymore..... but its crazy reading all the crap at Bigmike vendor review section .... one skam after another by guys who probably dont trade lol

but really tho, why give away a day trade strat that makes serious bank?? why advertise and allow hundreds of people to look for your spots??? Even if they cant trade they will try and front-run, or panic in and out...... maybe cause problems for you to get filled at your full size, or to miss a trade. big noise increase at your levels.... maybe if its a longer term strat it would not matter and would be safe to give away... but shorter term and scalping it seems dangerous to give away/sell good ideas...

 

[neke]

... Our job is to procure an edge, either constructed, purchased or a blend of both..

So what are you selling, so we may PURCHASE?

 

[ubo]

Would you mind posting your spreadsheet template for manual backtesting?

Here's a sample spreadsheet analysis posted by Nodoji in one of her previous post:

 

[MedianVelocity]

There are no easy edges... The most you will find around on the web are 52-54% edges at best. Getting anything better requires hard work... Developing your own tools, methodology, and coming up with and testing new theories.

With some serious screen time and experience you can filter down some approaches to a pretty decent edge... But, that requires developing a good feel for market conditions and predicting trading conditions through news/fundamental/sentiment analysis + technicals.

Talk about a market conditions shift... That last Yellen speech knocked us straight from choppy ranging to moderate to strict trending behavior!

 

[Roffe]

I wait for breakouts to fail and the faders to come in. Then I fade the faders.

What is the difference with this and just buying/selling the retrace? You prefer the retrace to be more aggressive, so more people are scared?

 

[Tonkadad]

Thank you.