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Bingo!!!! $219 Conference Call is over. Looks like we are in the clear! There will still be extrinsic value in the morning, but that is priced into an accurate implied move. In the scanner there is a term exErnIv.. This is the estimate of what the vol will fall to the next morning. The vol will...

Next tick might push upper bound. Bid 230 Ask 237. Eeeek.

What wings did you buy? My break even is 239. We still have lots of room to go and I think we will drop a bit after the earnings call :) good luck to us!

MTN usually has their confrence call in the middle of the day. This is the first time they are releasing over night. Therefore you will see vol come all the way in tomorrow morning and a relatively small intraday move. Confrence call just started. The rest of the vol will be diffused in the...

Thanks OM. I am looking forward to our next Ern season next month. I think Srinir will be back and it looks like Magic will be joining us. This thread has almost 16k views. I think wee have to be a bit more careful what we say around here! I'll send you PM about this strategy when I get in...

Breaking to new highs on the account today. Have been in a range for the past 2 weeks and took a beating on DLTR last week. Was long a sizeable amount of puts going into the event. Unfortunately after the $10 spike down after hours, the company fully recovered BMO. Even though things played out...

Anyone else looking at MTN on short vol play? It's one of the most expensive I have seen all year. I have a slight bullish bias as well. Short the 220 strikes. Holding both 180 and 185 puts as well as 260 calls (wings).

Great trade. I also was short vol here. Dollar wise the tails are never expensive going into earnings. You can usually buy 2.5 SD out on the wings for only a few cents. +3 SD moves are not uncommon during earnings. Plus it allows you to increase your vol exposure. On a side note, CRM came out...

TIF originally looked like a long vol play but after digging a bit deeper, I see most of the bad news offset by some good news

It seems like vol across the board is expensive. I am short CBRL, TIF and COUP

How many times have you spanked the monkey watching this video? This is the third time you have posted it. smh.

I have only found 2 ways to do it. 1. Pay $99 a month to orats + a one time $800 fee for a historical data dump. 2. (The way I do it). Get access to historical IV (orats from quandl $60 a month), filter out the day of/day before the event and calculate the implied move. If you want, I can...

Do I see a pin?????!!! Nice trade Des.

Really great words OM and Srinir! I'll try and shine some light on why fundamentals are so important during earnings season - especially for a retail account where you can't (it's hard) trade 30 stocks at one time to collect the risk premium without large swings. Would you want to sell vol on...

Those lil buggers added another 5 mil to guidance just to make the stock pop. LOL. Looks like a small winner if it can hold below 60. Currently 59 after news. There we go! Sub $58

Implied move only came down a tad on information release. It's juicy af!

Straddle it! Company has already released all earnings info. Estimates are guided a bit high. Stock will drop a tad on a bit of over optimism.

Short the 55 VRNT strike with everything you got!!! Allocated 10% of net liq to this trade.

I'll also save you some trouble with the implied move/ historical move spread. Sometimes stocks (especially stocks that don't have weeklies) have sticky vol. They tend to hold on to some residual implied vol for a day or 2 longer. This could seriously impact the "implied move" number you are...

Closed WDAY for 21.60! (I was in synthetic). Letting GOOS expire worthless. First and most importantly you need good data/news feed. I have seen so many bad "implied move" numbers. You also need to do research on the company prior to the move this requires access to a good news feed/historical...