What wings did you buy? My break even is 239. We still have lots of room to go and I think we will drop a bit after the earnings call
good luck to us!
Earnings journal
- Thread starter TheBigShort
- Start date
good luck to us!Next tick might push upper bound. Bid 230 Ask 237. Eeeek.
What wings did you buy? My break even is 239. We still have lots of room to go and I think we will drop a bit after the earnings call
Yeah, the 180/260 here as well.
I’ve been calculating the earnings vol and then showing it diffused over 1/2/3 days especially for stock with monthly only as per a comment you made earlier. Knowing much much of the vol will bleed out and how fast is something I still need a feel for.
Figure if we have all other data set to ambient vol and just a single datapoint for implied earnings move that could make me feel safe selling when I really shouldn’t. Dending on what the implieds adjust to tomorrow, the extrinsic we have to pay to buy back the straddle can cut into profits more than expected no?
Bingo!!!! $219 Conference Call is over. Looks like we are in the clear!
There will still be extrinsic value in the morning, but that is priced into an accurate implied move. In the scanner there is a term exErnIv.. This is the estimate of what the vol will fall to the next morning. The vol will bleed out faster the further away you are from expiration. For example a 1week option may go from 100% to 60% on day one and than 50% on day 2 until reaching 40% on day 3 while the 1m will go from 50% to 40% the following day. This is because of the dilution of the intraday implied vol on the day of earnings. I hope I am explaining this right.
Because the expiration of MTN is 15 days out. You will see the event vol almost evaporate. We also did not get a large spike down or a massive spike up. The vol should be 30% +/- 3% by 9.45 tomorrow.
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You options guys are totally crazy.
Alright, that makes sense. So the bulge in IV is pretty much all jump/post earnings day and not a significant amount of vol is priced in for aftershocks. With you 100% on the absolute vol figures diminishing faster when they are contained in a shorter series; I was more so wondering if there’s vol at times that shows up in traditional earnings vol calc (fwd vol to derive ambient daily figure; solve for vol figure that will = the front expiration’s implied vol when injected into ambient), but is actually allocated heavier to following 1/2 days than usual. Sounds like it’s not really much of an issue though.
I’ll have to contrast the exErn figure with a few diffusions as they play out, and compare against fwd vol and I think I’ll get a clearer sense of the post earnings dynamics.
I’ll have to contrast the exErn figure with a few diffusions as they play out, and compare against fwd vol and I think I’ll get a clearer sense of the post earnings dynamics.
Right. If you look here on MTN, the red line is what the green line (implied vol) will fall to after earnings. At 9.45 see if atm implied vol is roughly 34% (red line for 10 days out).
Using forward vol without additional filtering as the diffuse vol is not ideal for a few reasons. But the main one is post event term structure is not flat!
MTN is pushing hard! I am going to wait this one out. Still holding
I cant believe this thing moved $20 intraday.
Out! Small loss