Search results

Late cycle trades show commodities dislocating from risk assets...i.e. they move inversely to them. This is mainly because it's the "higher" commodity prices that usually end the current credit cycle. Put more simply, higher oil prices will push risk assets lower, not the other way around...

He sees EVERYTHING crashing. He has started 50 threads in the last week calling for a crash in just about everything. Don't worry Bone, guys like him move on pretty quickly when they run out of coins.

This is absurd. You are not calling for a $2 pullback, but a CRASH! The OVX is a bargain if you think oil is going to CRASH. Come on bro, shit or get off the pot. Current implied vol on WTI is pricing in roughly $3 per month. You are calling for a CRASH and soon! Are you telling me that...

Just tell us when you "finally" take a position. I would think monetizing a crude oil crash would be very lucrative.

I have no idea what you are talking about. Global supply has not been this tight in a long time. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iea/iea-says-mission-accomplished-for-opec-as-oil-stocks-shrink-idUSKBN1HK0WN

Not again....lol.

To your point earlier, the CME is actively trying to launch a Midland WTI contract. There is obviously already a swap from WTI-Midland that trades as a differential that is very active in the physical market, but CME wants to have a standalone futures with Midland as the price marker.

He is confusing correlation with causation.

What are you calling a collapse? A 3 pt pullback? LOL. If that is the case then ironically we are in agreement. The problem I have with many people on ET is the constant use of hyperbole. What many ETers call crashes are like normal down days or weeks. Oil has made 100% moves in a single...

It's not. Where the hell are the crashes? What are you calling a crash? A 10% selloff? LOL. Please specifically point to what you are looking at. We've had one equity crash in the last 10 years. That market peaked in 2007 and bottomed in march of 2009. Oil prices "rallied from 45 to 147...

I listed 5 different reasons why oil crashed in 2010 and 2011. Dude, you are not listening. You keep looking for ONE easy explanation to place a trade on. There is no such thing. There is nuance. A lot of people do this for a living and if it was so easy to look for one single predictor to...

Oil crashes have nothing to do with equity crashes. In fact, they are Inversely correlated. Late credit cycle moves show rising commodity prices which raise input prices, which leader to lower corporate profit margins which leads to recessions. Oil was $147 a barrel in 2008.

In 2010 and 2011 we had 1% real GDP growth.

World GDP was half then what it is now. That's a LOT!. We were drowning in supply. Both WTI and Brent were in super contango. You can google that. But super contango is where the cost of storage basically goes parabolic because you run out of storage capacity. The yields to storing oil...

Look bud, I'm trying to help. I've been trading energy for awhile, Bone has as well. You really need to get your hands on some more data. This sector shows no mercy for the ignorant. For starters, Cushing is NOT the global price marker for oil, Brent is. Cushing is landlocked and therefore...

One day? Oil is up 60% since last July. LOL.

You're welcome.

I agree with Bone. You need a really cheap cost structure to make that work and honestly you need to be aggressively providing liquidity. Taking markets intra-day will kill you even with membership pricing.

Dude, we were drowning in supply. The curves were in super contango. Tankers were actually going bankrupt because they were dry docked. Look at the curves now. Steepest backwardation we've have had since 2008. Storage around the world is very tight. Locational spreads are blowing out...

What makes you think being short oil is risk off? Late credit cycle trades are bullish commodities. It's rising input prices that drives economies into a recession. Oil is going a lot higher as is the entire commodity complex. And there are plenty of products to trade including the entire...