Cushing predicting another crash in oil prices?
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Robert Morse
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Do you ever get long or become bullish on any symbol?
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...erm-30-year-treasury-rate-expectation.319800/
But why should direction matter?
Only profit matters.
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Robert Morse
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It does not. I just find it funny that every post is bearish. Whatever works for you.
We're in the wake of mania.
At the depths on panic, you'll see me do the opposite.
So you are short oil?
I wish. The IV is horrible.
I'd like to be long USD too, but unfortunately again the choices for leverage vehicles are terrible.
One could say I'm short oil by proxy by being levered to risk off, but I have no direct or indirect exposure.
What makes you think being short oil is risk off? Late credit cycle trades are bullish commodities. It's rising input prices that drives economies into a recession. Oil is going a lot higher as is the entire commodity complex. And there are plenty of products to trade including the entire curve where you could express your views. I have no idea what's holding you back.
Compare oil to the 2010, 2011, and 2015 & 2016 crashes.
Dude, we were drowning in supply. The curves were in super contango. Tankers were actually going bankrupt because they were dry docked. Look at the curves now. Steepest backwardation we've have had since 2008. Storage around the world is very tight. Locational spreads are blowing out trying to move product out of Midland into the Gulf. We are not even remotely close to the market we had 3 or 4 years ago.