For what it is worth, I read the article a while ago, but as far as I remember it was about a diminished role of Cushing as price setter. Or in other words: don't worry about storage levels or flows in/out of Cushing. Look for clues elsewhere.
Cushing predicting another crash in oil prices?
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Great graph in there. I didn't know world supplies were even relatively less before the 2014 collapse than today.
You haven't heard at all about strained shale pipelines and storage? How long have you been doing this, again?
Just tell us when you "finally" take a position. I would think monetizing a crude oil crash would be very lucrative.
Demand through consumption as it relates to availability determines the value of a commodity.
Again, I'm going to go back to EIA data. You seem to be stuck on a very superficial and limited viewpoint of the hydrocarbons market. Judging by your original post and follow up posts everything for you appeared to revolve around Cushing storage in fact.
EIA data tells us that domestic US liquids consumption really fell off in 2014 as compared to 2013. It was a really big drop in fact. Supply production curtailments couldn't catch up until about the fourth quarter of 2014 in fact. In other words, consumption dropped much faster than supplies.
And WTI rallied 8 percent last week because the EIA and some private research experts revised their 2018 world liquid fuels consumption forecast upwards. So some really big swinging dicks in Houston tend to disagree with your premise.
When judging commodity valuation - you just can't look at supply as the be all end all magical unicorn. There is the demand side of the valuation equation. In the commodity futures markets, demand determines how much oil to pump, how many acres to plant, how many megawatts to generate, how much gold or silver to mine, how much kerosene to crack from a barrel, how many Southern Pines to harvest for lumber... and on and on.
I would if the OVX weren't so high. By opportunity cost, bearish oil is too expensive for me.
But since other trades will act in more or less the same way with lower cost, I'll be sticking with them.
That's not why oil rallied. This is what the EIA said before the 2014 collapse started: https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2014/july/iea-releases-oil-market-report-for-july.html This is what the oil industry did before the same:
Indeed, and demand at the current price is collapsing.
Where do you see "demand collapsing" in your own words ? If it were truly the case that "demand collapsing" (your words) happening simultaneously with the United States pumping record amounts of crude oil (EIA data, not my own) we would have had the mother of all sell-offs and not an eight percent rally in one week. You know nothing, Jon Snow.
I'm going to have to put you on "ignore" because you have no capacity for reasoned discussion - just unsubstantiated hyperbole.
This is absurd. You are not calling for a $2 pullback, but a CRASH! The OVX is a bargain if you think oil is going to CRASH. Come on bro, shit or get off the pot. Current implied vol on WTI is pricing in roughly $3 per month. You are calling for a CRASH and soon! Are you telling me that you think oil will pullback less than $3? And if so, then what the hell is this thread about?
Where do you see "demand collapsing" in your own words ? If it were truly the case that "demand collapsing" (your words) happening simultaneously with the United States pumping record amounts of crude oil (EIA data, not my own) we would have had the mother of all sell-offs and not an eight percent rally in one week. You know nothing, Jon Snow.
I'm going to have to put you on "ignore" because you have no capacity for reasoned discussion - just unsubstantiated hyperbole.
He sees EVERYTHING crashing. He has started 50 threads in the last week calling for a crash in just about everything. Don't worry Bone, guys like him move on pretty quickly when they run out of coins.
If it were my only risk off choice, I'd buy bearish positions on it, but the OVX is almost 30. That is not a bargain relative to the other risk off choices.
The drop should be 20% or more from the recent top.