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Sounds plausible, but frankly improbable. Let me explain why i think so: Quants care about arbitrage relationships between index and stocks, pairs among stocks, baskets of stocks, quants program level II order book - with the aim of making intra-day profits in a low volatile manner. I am very...

so you saying when market goes back to 83-88 range, stuck shorts will cover, pushing the market higher. Thats your theory - am i correct to understand it this way ammo ?

covered 1 ES @ 93.5. Holding the other one. Probably will scalp onwards as market is very rangebound today and entering lunchtime now.

Thanks, but that was a very generic response. I was hoping that you might offer some specifics :) In any case, imo, these patterns have much higher probability of playing out at higher timeframes than intra-day.

Lawrence, you have done so much work on quantifying ES market. Still you believe in H&S and IHS patterns, and that too on an intra-day basis. I can understand if you are looking at these patterns on daily chart, but on an intra-day basis - Makes me wonder. Have you done any studies like this on ES?

yes, either that or that they actually become successful in dumping the market and forcing the market below 1150 again!! Just wondering. Both scenarios plausible, but I am more biased towards short side.

only 1 word....."Wow" ! So, it is classic short covering rally. What happens after shorts cover themselves :confused:

short 87.75 and short 1191. 1st target 89. 2nd target 84.

Thanks for very good question. Honestly, I don't know how ES is different from forex. I am myself trying to understand this, and hopefully will have an answer in a few months. Now about why i am losing money on ES: 1. My total screentime with forex is around 3 yrs (1yr full time) Vs around...

Thanks for your kind words. It is still early days though and I have to make sure that I don't end up in trouble again. Lots of ground to cover, hopefully I won't be lax with my risk for next few months.

Alright, so here is the summary for my scalping operations. 7 days have passed since I started, and so far it has been working. positive on all 7 days. Encouraging - no doubt, however, still early days....I don't want to become too happy before I have around 30 days of data. Monday # Trades...

Thanks for your points - that makes me think. Btw, what do you make of the following excerpt from the link you sent. The chart doesn't confirm it and obviously it seems either it is a mis-print or something that I don't understand. Following please: "The inflation rate in Switzerland was...

Update for week 17 ending Nov 25, 2011 : +2300$ for the week. First week, in which I made money on all 5 trading days. Wow....it felt good. Also, I am currently in my longest winning streak: 8 positive days in a row. Never thought I can have such a winning streak! This Week's Stats...

Agreed you are correct in questioning the examples I gave. But what about the idea? Let me put forward the arguments in a different light. Of course, if world stays like it is today, the peg will stand. The scenario when peg will break is if and when Europe undergoes a massive contagion and...

you serious about what you saying ? Personally, I have always considered this a serious possibility, however haven't been able to find many people to agree with me on this hypothesis. Who could have thought something like 9/11 could happen before it did. Who in their right mind could have...

Agree that puts are still expensive. Btw, if SNB does move the floor to 1.25/1.3, that will give an even better opportunity to load up on some puts. However, disagree with your argument that a central bank can print as much money as possible and keep their currency as low as they want. Even...

ahh thanks...didn't recognize the abbreviation

what is PP if you can please explain. Thanks

nice trade

very well written post, especially the last few lines. Reduce your size and increase your timeframe....you will become profitable. I haven't read your journal, but let give an example. If you are trading ES, trade 1 contract for every 20k in account equity. Hold the positions for multiple...