ES Journal Archive (2011)

[zjulian104]

Cup and Handle meltdown on a 512T/8M. They might push it back up and if they do I'ld say bear flag print rather than a bull high and tight. We could see 60 point range-bound, directionless swings out of this.

 

[gmst]

Quote from ammo:

88-83 is where the overnight shorts are stuck,i think,doesn't bring into focus the shorts from last 2 weeks,mid range from 1270-1147 is 1208

so you saying when market goes back to 83-88 range, stuck shorts will cover, pushing the market higher. Thats your theory - am i correct to understand it this way ammo ?

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from gmst:

Thanks, but that was a very generic response. I was hoping that you might offer some specifics

In any case, imo, these patterns have much higher probability of playing out at higher timeframes than intra-day.

Intraday classic patterns have higher prob than daily.

They now work best in tick level.

Reason is simple - quants created the bots and they do their stuff with well defined rules. When many of these bots working in real-time, you get patterns.

Make sense? =)

 

[JoshDance]

considering a short at 92

 

[noone3]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Intraday classic patterns have higher prob than daily.

They now work best in tick level.

Reason is simple - quants created the bots and they do their stuff with well defined rules. When many of these bots working in real-time, you get patterns.

Make sense? =)

Self-fulfilled-prophecies

 

[ammo]

Quote from gmst:

so you saying when market goes back to 83-88 range, stuck shorts will cover, pushing the market higher. Thats your theory - am i correct to understand it this way ammo ?

saying they have been covering on the pullbacks,holding it up,when they are done..the cord of wood is burnt...after that don't know, financials had a nice pop and uerusd has returned to the nip,it may hold,fall, bounce,see what happens at 88es

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from noone3:

Self-fulfilled-prophecies

Yeap. Very stupid but that gives retail traders a window of opportunity to beat the bots at their own games.

 

[ammo]

eur 10 day

 

[ammo]

xlf

 

[gmst]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Intraday classic patterns have higher prob than daily.

They now work best in tick level.

Reason is simple - quants created the bots and they do their stuff with well defined rules. When many of these bots working in real-time, you get patterns.

Make sense? =)

Sounds plausible, but frankly improbable. Let me explain why i think so: Quants care about arbitrage relationships between index and stocks, pairs among stocks, baskets of stocks, quants program level II order book - with the aim of making intra-day profits in a low volatile manner. I am very sceptical of the idea that quants program H&S patterns and that too on intra-day data.

Imo, H&S patterns do work in markets on longer time frame, because of human large position traders (private individuals, banks, funds etc), who look at the price action over a longer time period and can take and keep positions worth 1000 contracts over multiple days/months. I think this kind of money flow and the traditional knowledge of patterns is the reason behind the patterns working on a longer time frame.

But I could be wrong.