Update:
Sept 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $73
Yield = 73/427 = 17.1% in 183 days or 34.1% annualized
Prob = 79%
Expectation = .79(73) - .13(427) - .08(213) = 57.67 - 55.51 - 17.04 = -15
Nothing much has changed in the past 5 days... still looks like we will be flat to...