Conservative Options Trades

MET:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-metlife-may-pays-barrons-170324559.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MET+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=met

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MET&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With MET at 53.31
Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $48
Yield = 48/452 = 10.6% in 311 days or 12.5% annualized
Prob = 92%
Expectation = .92(48) - .02(452) - .06(226) = 44.2 - 9.04 - 13.56 = 21.6


Price...............................Profit / Loss............................ROI %
25.00............................... (452.00)............................ -90.40%
30.00............................... (452.00)............................ -90.40%
35.00............................... (452.00)............................ -90.40%
39.52....................................... 0.00.................................. 0.00%
40.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%
45.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%
50.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%
60.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%
65.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%


snoopy-balloon.gif
 
PLUG:
:)
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy...as-analyst-says-fair-share-value-is-50-cents/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/plug-power-shares-soar-wal-194511634.html

http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2014/03/11/plug-power-walmart-fuel-cells/?source=yahoo_quote

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PLUG+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=plug

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PLUG&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=plug

Trade:
with PLUG at 6.03
June 10/13 bear call spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/260 = 15.4% in 101 days or 56% annualized
Prob = 85%
Expectation = .85(40) - .10(260) - .05(130) = 34 - 26 - 6.5 = 1.5


Price............................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
4.00................................. 40.00.......................... 15.40%
6.00................................. 40.00.......................... 15.40%
9.00................................. 40.00.......................... 15.40%
10.00.............................. 40.00.......................... 15.40%
10.40................................. 0.00............................. 0.00%
11.51.......................... (111.20)...................... -37.07%
13.00.......................... (260.00)...................... -86.67%
14.00.......................... (260.00)...................... -86.67%
16.00.......................... (260.00)...................... -86.67%
 
BLDP:

See PLUG above
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy...as-analyst-says-fair-share-value-is-50-cents/
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bldp
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BLDP+Key+Statistics
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=BLDP&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=BLDP&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=PLUG&ql=1

Trade:
with BLDP at 5.1
Aug 3/1 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/155 = 29% in 157 days or 67% annualized


Price..........................Profit / Loss.....................ROI %
0.75............................... (155.00)................... -77.50%
1.00............................... (155.00)................... -77.50%
1.83............................... (72.00)...................... -36.00%
2.55.................................... 0.00............................ 0.00%
2.97.................................. 41.60......................... 20.80%
3.00.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00%
4.10.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00%
5.00.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00%
6.00.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00%

walmart-plugpower2-614xa.png
 
PFE:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/study-pfizer-vaccine-cuts-pneumonia-215937954.html

very expensive study with a very positive outcome. Still need to look at toxicity.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PFE&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With PFE at 31.98
Jan'15 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $34
Yield = 34/466 = 7.3% in 310 days or 8.6% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(34) - .01(466) - .07(233) = 30.94 - 4.66 - 16.31 = 9.97


Price......................................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
15.00......................................... (466.00)................ -93.20%
19.79......................................... (466.00)................ -93.20%
20.00......................................... (466.00)................ -93.20%
24.66................................................. 0.00....................... 0.00%
24.84.............................................. 17.90....................... 3.58%
25.00............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30%
29.88............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30%
34.93............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30%
39.98............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30%
 
HIMX:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=HIMX+Profile

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12527256/1/why-himax-himx-is-up-today.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/time-focus-himax-technologies-himx-115226486.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HIMX+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HIMX&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With HIMX at 15.65
April 12/14 bull call spread for a net debit of $154


Price.............................Profit / Loss.......................ROI %
10.00............................. (154.00)....................... -100.00%
11.00............................. (154.00)........................ -100.00%
12.00............................. (154.00)........................ -100.00%
13.16................................ (37.90)............................ -24.61%
13.54..................................... 0.00.................................. 0.00%
14.00................................... 46.00............................... 29.87%
15.00................................... 46.00................................ 29.87%
15.65....................................46.00.................................29.87%
17.00................................... 46.00................................ 29.87%
19.00................................... 46.00................................ 29.87%

Alternate trade:

Sept 10/5 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 190 days or 19.0% annualized
Prob = 77%
Expectation = .76(45) - .01(455) - .23(228) = 34.20 - 4.55 - 52.21 = -22.6


Price.............................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
3.75................................. (455.00)................... -91.00%
5.00................................. (455.00)................... -91.00%
6.78................................. (276.50)................... -55.30%
9.55......................................... 0.00......................... 0.00%
9.98....................................... 42.90........................ 8.58%
10.00.................................... 45.00........................ 9.90%
13.17.................................... 45.00........................ 9.90%
16.37.................................... 45.00........................ 9.90%
19.56.................................... 45.00....................... 9.90%
 
TEVA:

http://news.investors.com/030614-69...upgrade.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teva-fda-nod-generic-evista-200752901.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...buyouts-lift-earnings-outlook.html?cmpid=yhoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TEVA+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=TEVA

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TEVA&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With TEVA at 48.76
Sept 37/34 bull put spread for a net credit of $23
Yield = 23/277 = 8.3% in 190 days or 16% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(23) - .04(277) - .05(138) = 20.9 - 11.8 - 6.9 = 2.2


Price....................Profit / Loss........................ROI %
25.00.................... (277.00)......................... -92.33%
32.00.................... (277.00)......................... -92.33%
34.00.................... (277.00).......................... -92.33%
36.77............................ 0.00................................ 0.00%
37.00......................... 23.00.............................. 8.30%
39.00......................... 23.00.............................. 8.30%
45.00......................... 23.00.............................. 8.30%
48.76..........................23.00.............................. 8.30%
50.00........................ 23.00............................... 8.30%
 
SPY

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy

http://www.thestar.com/business/per...p_as_more_investors_buy_stocks_on_margin.html

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...hmC6cWvMoULn2WZi7-GsosQ&bvm=bv.62922401,d.dmQ

http://www.minyanville.com/business...ooper-Did-Yesterday-Mark-a/3/12/2014/id/54129

Trade:

Sept 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $63
Yield = 63/437 = 14.4% in 188 days or 28% annualized
Prob = 80%
Expectation = .80(63) - .14(437) - .06(218) = 50.4 - 61.18 - 13.08 = -23.84


Price.................................Profit / Loss.......................ROM %
150.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
170.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
185.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
200.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
200.63......................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00%
205.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
210.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
225.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
250.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
 
Crimea:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crimeans-overwhelmingly-vote-secession-203643295.html

The Russians are happy... but there was never any doubt. Russia took Crimea before the vote was held.

Can a state secede from a union??

In 1861 13 states seceded from the US:

http://www.civil-war.net/pages/ordinances_secession.asp

Did they have the right?? Was it 'legal' for the Northern states to stop them??

I never thought so.

What will THIS vote mean to world markets??

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-sundays-crimea-vote-means-for-markets-2014-03-14

Not much in the immediate time frame but the future adventures of Putin will be of more and more interest. Many people (including Putin) would like to see Russia return to the days of the USSR.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq1KbYUp8Ac


It's crazy to see the Russians go nuts over the Beatles.

:-)
 
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