Conservative Options Trades

I noticed your post on the Crimea.
I like to do some conservative trading.
Can I use this news to buy some long term investing options., like LEAPS as some good companies are beaten down last week.

I also write in the website: http://www.options-trading-training.com and give my ideas to beginners in options trading.

Please check when you have time. I am planning to post option trades for testing purposes for the beginners.
 
Crimea:

http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-...ns-to-nazi-annexation-of-austria/1864112.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss




220px-Bundesarchiv_Bild_119-5243%2C_Wien%2C_Arthur_Sey%C3%9F-Inquart%2C_Adolf_Hitler.jpg
 
IP:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-international-paper-ip-050027968.html

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101417438?__...hoo&doc=101417438%7cStorms+cost+International

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=IP+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=ip

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IP&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

With IP at 43.93

Trade #1
Oct 52.50/57.50 bear call spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 213 days or 19% annualized
Prob = 81%
Expectation = .81(50) - .075(450) - .115(225) = 40.5 - 33.75 - 25.90 = -19

Trade #2
Oct 38/33 bull put spread for a net credit of $55
Yield = 55/445 = 12.% in 213 days or 21% annualized
Prob = 87%
Expectation = .87(55) - .025(445) - .105(223) = 47.85 - 11.12 - 23.4 = 13.33

Statistics gives a slight edge to the bull put spread... but history may give the edge to the bearish trade.

:-)
 
GIS:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/vid....html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12532774/1/general-mills-can-still-satisfy-earnings-preview.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-mills-gis-miss-earnings-124004855.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GIS&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

with GIS at 50.50
Jan 40/37 bull put spread for a net credit of $33
Yield = 33/267 = 12.4% in 304 days or 14.8% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(33) - .04(267) - .05(134) = 30.03 - 10.68 - 6.7 = 12.6


Price........................Profit / Loss...........................ROI %
25.00............................ (267.00)....................... -89.00%
35.00............................ (267.00)....................... -89.00%
37.00............................ (267.00)....................... -89.00%
39.67..................................... 0.00............................ 0.00%
40.00.................................. 33.00.......................... 11.00%
45.00.................................. 33.00.......................... 11.00%
50.00.................................. 33.00.......................... 11.00%
55.00.................................. 33.00.......................... 11.00%
60.00.................................. 33.00.......................... 11.00%
 
ODP:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/office-depot-now-strong-sell-195352147.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/office-depot-misses-q4-earnings-174005284.html

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/behind...bt-to-the-future-of-office-supplies-industry/

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=ODP

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ODP&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With ODP at 4.61
Oct 5.5/8.0 bear call spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/225 = 11.11% in 213 days or 19% annualized


Price.........................Profit / Loss......................ROi %
4.00.............................. 25.00 ............................11.11%
4.61.............................. 25.00 ............................11.11%
4.71.............................. 25.00............................ 11.11%
5.50.............................. 25.00............................ 11.11%
5.75................................. 0.00................................0.00%
6.03............................. (28.50)........................ -11.40%
7.36............................. (160.70)..................... -64.28%
8.00............................. (225.00)..................... -90.00%
9.00............................. (225.00)..................... -90.00%
10.00.......................... (225.00)..................... -90.00%
 
oldnemesis said:
SPY

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy

http://www.thestar.com/business/per...p_as_more_investors_buy_stocks_on_margin.html

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...hmC6cWvMoULn2WZi7-GsosQ&bvm=bv.62922401,d.dmQ

http://www.minyanville.com/business...ooper-Did-Yesterday-Mark-a/3/12/2014/id/54129

Trade:

Sept 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $63
Yield = 63/437 = 14.4% in 188 days or 28% annualized
Prob = 80%
Expectation = .80(63) - .14(437) - .06(218) = 50.4 - 61.18 - 13.08 = -23.84


Price.................................Profit / Loss.......................ROM %
150.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
170.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
185.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
200.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
200.63......................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00%
205.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
210.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
225.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
250.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
More...

Update:

Sept 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $73
Yield = 73/427 = 17.1% in 183 days or 34.1% annualized
Prob = 79%
Expectation = .79(73) - .13(427) - .08(213) = 57.67 - 55.51 - 17.04 = -15

Nothing much has changed in the past 5 days... still looks like we will be flat to down from here.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy


:-)
 
SPY: continued

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy

Sept 165/160 bull put spread for a net credit of $58
Yield = 58/442 = 13.1% in 183 days or 26.2% annualized
Prob = 93%
Expectation = .93(58) - .03(442) - .04(221) = 53.94 - 13.26 - 8.84 = 31.84


Price....................Profit / Loss.........................ROM %
120.00.................... (442.00)....................... -88.40%
140.00.................... (442.00)....................... -88.40%
160.00.................... (442.00)....................... -88.40%
164.42............................ 0.00.............................. 0.00%
164.64......................... 22.30.............................. 4.46%
165.00.......................... 58.00........................... 13.10%
180.00.......................... 58.00........................... 13.10%
210.00.......................... 58.00........................... 13.10%
225.00.......................... 58.00........................... 13.10%
 
RAVN:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/raven-down-strong-sell-190008676.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=RAVN+Profile

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RAVN+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=RAVN

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=RAVN&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=RAVN&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:
With RAVN at 32.90
Aug 45/50 bear call spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 148 days or 18.6% annualized
Prob = 95%
Expectation = .95(35) - .02(465) - .03(232) = 33.25 - 9.3 - 7.0 = 17


Price.............................Profit / Loss.................ROI %
25.00.............................. 35.00........................... 7.50%
30.00.............................. 35.00........................... 7.50%
32.90.............................. 35.00........................... 7.50%
40.00.............................. 35.00........................... 7.50%
45.00.............................. 35.00........................... 7.50%
45.35................................. 0.00........................... 0.00%
47.22......................... (186.60)..................... -37.32%
50.00......................... (465.00)..................... -93.00%
55.00......................... (465.00)..................... -93.00%
60.00......................... (465.00)..................... -93.00%
 
KRFT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/krafts-4q-profit-rises-sales-220033872.html

(have you ever had that macaroni and cheese dinner?? better you should eat the box)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/krafts-top-line-pressures-continue-174004496.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=KRFT+Key+Statistics

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=krft

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=KRFT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:
With KRFT at 55.37
Jan 15 60/62.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/210 = 19% in 300 days or 23% annualized
Prob: KRFT has been trading for less than 2 years since the spin-off and probability and expectation are thus not available.


Price.....................................Profit / Loss....................ROM %
45.55.......................................... 40.00......................... 19.00%
50.00.......................................... 40.00......................... 19.00%
55.00.......................................... 40.00......................... 19.00%
55.37.......................................... 40.00......................... 19.00%
60.00.......................................... 40.00......................... 19.00%
60.40............................................. 0.00............................ 0.00%
62.50 ......................................(210.00)..................... -84.00%
65.00...................................... (210.00)..................... -84.00%
70.00...................................... (210.00)..................... -84.00%
75.00...................................... (210.00)..................... -84.00%
 
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