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  1. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    What would be a list of fund managers who've deliverd alpha in the past and whose transactions can partly be tracked on Dataroma, Hedgefollows, or Whalewisdom ? These are my suggestions : - Warren Buffett and his successors Ted Weschler & Todd Combs - David Tepper - Leon Cooperman - Stanley...
  2. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I yesterday noted that the successors Warren Buffett has chosen to replace him were the brains behind the idea to invest heavily in Apple. When they - Ted Weschler & Todd Combs - build up big positions in companies as private investors, aside to their role as capital allocators for Berkshire, it...
  3. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Now this is some good news - I am happy to report that I got corrected on what was a false opinion of mine. It is by now widely known in investment circles that the investment Berkshire Hathaway, the holding company run by Warren Buffett, made in Apple has become its single biggest winner...
  4. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Imperial Brands ("IMB" on tradingview) - I think here, a short setup is NOT valid anymore, I'd now interpret the chart as bullish ! If I'd initiate a position, I right now would be a buyer (1,619 pence right now), I see the stock potentially rising to 2,000 pence or beyond. It also does have...
  5. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    It can pay off to pay attention to the smart money crowd, when Warren Buffett made a superbullish statement on Apple (AAPL) in early 2017, he made it clear this may become his biggest investment yet, the rest is history. With David Tepper, we have another all-time great in the investment...
  6. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    On page 21, I wrote that I see Gamestop shares ("GME") at around 15 US$ or even lower in the summer of 2022 or earlier. I think "or earlier" may become reality. Gamestop has taken a beating and closed at 136.88 US$ according to TradingView, I think from now on its downhill for the share price.
  7. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    On page 15 in this thread I forecasted that Apple, for the reasons I wrote down, would see a market cap of 3 trillion US$ in 2024 or even earlier ... now it may be in the cards even this year or in Q1 of 2022. New All-time-high for the stock price of this company at around 171 US$, was trading...
  8. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Incredible volatility in Bitcoin (BTCUSD), but so far it has shown incredible resilience . I do think a careful short maybe worth a try here, but the SL would have to be wide - I'd place it at around 65,000 , the current price is around 47,000 US$. Profittarget I'd put @ 15,000 US$ . I would...
  9. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Last month of the year 2021, it may be my last setup this year. I think Oil (OIL_BRENT on TradingView) may now be in long mode again, the support line may hold. Could rally to 80 US$ or even higher. SL I'd place at 67 US$.
  10. janbillian

    Is it possible to time the market?

    Serious question ? I'd say it's selfexplanatory.
  11. janbillian

    Is it possible to time the market?

    @Steve Alexander : you made "only" 12% in a year when the S&P 500 tanked aka lost around 40%, now it's an annual return of 150% for you ? Makes me wonder why you spend time in forums like these where small retail investors aka little people are present and don't work / consult top firms like...
  12. janbillian

    Is it possible to time the market?

    When you write "The market", I guess you mean the S&P 500. It is possible to "time the market" in the sense that a buy and hold strategy with an index fund on the S&P 500 can be outperformed, BUT ... most investors underperform "buy and hold", another words for most investors market timing does...
  13. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Many so-so setups and losing setups I posted. The only big winner would have been my long setup in Natural Gas from last year, it now trades @ 5.48 - a clear upward trend and I think it may hit 6 US$ or even more within the next 6 months. Shows the nature of trendfollowing, with a little...
  14. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Lost what ? No such thing as a "lost decade" - the term refers to the timespan 01/2000 - 12/2009 where the S&P 500 lost around 1% per year - for the Medallion fund. This has to be the most successful fund in the history of mankind, it is not known for sure however how much net gains RenTech has...
  15. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    In my native Germany, carmaker's BMW shareprice looks as if it's ready to drop into the 65 - 70 € range, currently trading at around 79.30 € . I think 85 € would be a smart Stop Loss level. Long-term resistance has been broken on the downside significantly. If possible depending upon the...
  16. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Reflecting upon the performance of the S&P 500 and the fact that all-time great Warren Buffett is a long term bull for the US economy and thus its stock market - remembering that stock prices can be considered a collective judgement on future earnings of the companies that make up the index by...
  17. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    As of now, the Tesla (TSLA) short setup I posted is not valid anymore, currently trading at around 710 US$ . At around 560 US$, I think it'd be a valid candidate for further falling prices, base may be around 150 - 200 US$. https://de.tradingview.com/chart/FgnmRxT3/
  18. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Kudos to Ray Dalio again, I doubt though he reads in forums at all :D - but of course without him, I would never had a clue that there's a world beyond "stocks - long only" for long term investors who chose a buy and hold approach. I've changed the portfolio composition in my previous post from...
  19. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I have taken the time to play with the concept of legendary fund manager Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, who developed the all-weather portfolio, essentially a mixture of ETFs that cover bonds, commodities, gold and of course stocks (US, international and emerging markets). My...
  20. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is now "neutral to bullish", I'd close any short position and try a long, trades take place on weekends and place the stop loss @ 34.000, it currently trades @ 41.577 US$ . Profittarget ? 60.000 US$.
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