... but is it doable in reality ?

On page 15 in this thread I forecasted that Apple, for the reasons I wrote down, would see a market cap of 3 trillion US$ in 2024 or even earlier ... now it may be in the cards even this year or in Q1 of 2022.

New All-time-high for the stock price of this company at around 171 US$, was trading at around 110 US$ when I wrote my post.
 
On page 21, I wrote that I see Gamestop shares ("GME") at around 15 US$ or even lower in the summer of 2022 or earlier.

I think "or earlier" may become reality. Gamestop has taken a beating and closed at 136.88 US$ according to TradingView, I think from now on its downhill for the share price.

GME_2021-12-14_05-26-21.png
 
It can pay off to pay attention to the smart money crowd, when Warren Buffett made a superbullish statement on Apple (AAPL) in early 2017, he made it clear this may become his biggest investment yet, the rest is history.

With David Tepper, we have another all-time great in the investment business who's not supersecretive about his market outllook(s), he's one of the few listening to can have merit .

He spoke here, unfortunately the whole interview is hidden behind a pay wall (CNBC +), it took place in late october of this year, 2021. David essentially forecasted the great bull market of 2010 - 2021 correctly, he right now does not see any great asset classes.

Result ? This may become a decade of subpar annual returns in US equities with the S&P 500 only seeing an annualized return of around 4% . We'll of course know for sure on 12/31/2030.

 
Forex is doable YES!

Why I like price action trading the most is because it lets you evaluate trades quickly without any extemporaneous details and things cluttering up your screen.

Indicators can provide value though, and are good to use especially for new traders.

Ultimately you will find what works for you. And this is a key point I will re-emphasize; NOBODY is going to trade for YOU!

You have to be the one to see the trade setup, determine for entry point, setup your position size, execute your trade, monitor and evaluate it, know when you will exit, be it in profit or when to close out a losing trade.
 
Imperial Brands ("IMB" on tradingview) - I think here, a short setup is NOT valid anymore, I'd now interpret the chart as bullish !
IMB_2021-12-22_15-38-31.png


If I'd initiate a position, I right now would be a buyer (1,619 pence right now), I see the stock potentially rising to 2,000 pence or beyond. It also does have, as of now, a high dividend yield.
 
Now this is some good news - I am happy to report that I got corrected on what was a false opinion of mine.

It is by now widely known in investment circles that the investment Berkshire Hathaway, the holding company run by Warren Buffett, made in Apple has become its single biggest winner (though only around 5 3/4 years old), with a netgain that stands as of now at > 100 billion US$.

I was however deeply worried that this may have been Buffett's farewell present to his fans & admirers, his advanced age may mean he's (91 years old, I believe) not around much longer.

But, the Apple investment was not his idea nor based on his analysis of the company, though he greenlit it, but one of his and Munger's designated successors, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. Buffett's an ace when it comes to chosing analysts, too. Both Weschler and Combs are, of course, much younger than he is.

This is great news for the investment community - maybe we can replicate one of their future big investments when they announce it !

Source / URL : http://blog.umd.edu/davidkass/2016/...jHQy1CybfCLcimWqwT2TWTTzxgUQJoIiCcZIfModNtrVY

Ted Weschler is an ace stockpicker, for sure, and I'm sure Todd Combs, is too !
-> https://markets.businessinsider.com...V_acLf9JUc7u6uW30h41YK9pn1UAeQC3FOF3u4RoiGfaE

 
I yesterday noted that the successors Warren Buffett has chosen to replace him were the brains behind the idea to invest heavily in Apple. When they - Ted Weschler & Todd Combs - build up big positions in companies as private investors, aside to their role as capital allocators for Berkshire, it can pay of in $$$ to pay attention.

Case in point ? Ted Weschler purchased a big stake in a company called Dillard's (ticker symbol : DDS), CNBC reported on this on 10-12-2020, more than one year ago, read https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/12/dil...HHU0SjGVAEfkMqcxLY59XyCHan2E2YqUCkAqhJhJowcFs

I've marked the publishing date of the article with an arrow (daily chart), the stock appreciated by more than 500% at its all-time high afterward !

DL7A_2021-12-24_10-11-01.png
 
What would be a list of fund managers who've deliverd alpha in the past and whose transactions can partly be tracked on Dataroma, Hedgefollows, or Whalewisdom ? These are my suggestions :

- Warren Buffett and his successors Ted Weschler & Todd Combs
- David Tepper
- Leon Cooperman
- Stanley Druckenmiller
- Seth Klarman
- Joseph Edelman
- Steve Mandel
- Michael Platt
- Daniel Loeb
- Andrew Law
- George Soros
- Christopher Hohn

All of the above have stellar track records as capital allocators.
1f44d.png
 
My temporary final thoughts :D on Apple (AAPL) and its valuation :

It is America's most profitable company as of now, but it's valuation (now a slight notch below 3 trillion US$, yesterday's closing price was 182 US$) makes it difficult to argue that its share price still has an annual appreciation potential of 12% or more given that no company will probably be able to book net income applicable to common shareholders of 150 billion US$ or even more a year for years upon years !

However, might a purchase of the shares make sense in the future ? I'd run a double screen here to answer this with "Yes".

We'd have to experience a sharp drop across the board in equity prices like 2007 - 2009 or 2020, the share price drops to the support line I've drawn in the chart AND Berkshire Hathaway keeps its big stake or even increases it ! https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Berkshire+Hathaway

AAPL_2022-01-04_03-39-48.png
 
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