Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is now "neutral to bullish", I'd close any short position and try a long, trades take place on weekends and place the stop loss @ 34.000, it currently trades @ 41.577 US$ . Profittarget ? 60.000 US$.
... but is it doable in reality ?
- Thread starter janbillian
- Start date
I have taken the time to play with the concept of legendary fund manager Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, who developed the all-weather portfolio, essentially a mixture of ETFs that cover bonds, commodities, gold and of course stocks (US, international and emerging markets).
My idea ? Strip it down to only three ETFs covering gold, bond, and of course american stocks. This is the build I consider ideal, it would have participated in the strong bull market in the last 11 years and the drawdown in the turmoil brought by the financial crisis between october 2007 and april 2009 would have been less than 6% !
Just as a reminder, the S&P 500 lost almost 60% in this timeframe peak-valley !
Here's the URL, it bears my original name -> https://tinyurl.com/5d4atnfp
My idea ? Strip it down to only three ETFs covering gold, bond, and of course american stocks. This is the build I consider ideal, it would have participated in the strong bull market in the last 11 years and the drawdown in the turmoil brought by the financial crisis between october 2007 and april 2009 would have been less than 6% !
Just as a reminder, the S&P 500 lost almost 60% in this timeframe peak-valley !
Here's the URL, it bears my original name -> https://tinyurl.com/5d4atnfp
Kudos to Ray Dalio again, I doubt though he reads in forums at all 
- but of course without him, I would never had a clue that there's a world beyond "stocks - long only" for long term investors who chose a buy and hold approach.
I've changed the portfolio composition in my previous post from three ETFs to four ETFs, the fourth covering emerging markets. Total expense ratio on average would be around 0.13% per year.
The photo shows the period from december 2004 to december 2009 for the S&P 500, very weak.
The modified All-Weather portfolio would have done much better with 10% a year in this period, however given the longterm upward drift of the US stock market, for a period of 30 years or longer, 100% US equites will probably perform better - but the downward swings can and will be huge and not every investor can stomach them. October 2007 - March 2009 saw an almost 60% drop in the S&P 500 !
Every asset class gets an equal weighting of 25% -> https://tinyurl.com/3ftcppjm
- but of course without him, I would never had a clue that there's a world beyond "stocks - long only" for long term investors who chose a buy and hold approach.I've changed the portfolio composition in my previous post from three ETFs to four ETFs, the fourth covering emerging markets. Total expense ratio on average would be around 0.13% per year.
The photo shows the period from december 2004 to december 2009 for the S&P 500, very weak.
The modified All-Weather portfolio would have done much better with 10% a year in this period, however given the longterm upward drift of the US stock market, for a period of 30 years or longer, 100% US equites will probably perform better - but the downward swings can and will be huge and not every investor can stomach them. October 2007 - March 2009 saw an almost 60% drop in the S&P 500 !
Every asset class gets an equal weighting of 25% -> https://tinyurl.com/3ftcppjm
As of now, the Tesla (TSLA) short setup I posted is not valid anymore, currently trading at around 710 US$ .
At around 560 US$, I think it'd be a valid candidate for further falling prices, base may be around 150 - 200 US$.
https://de.tradingview.com/chart/FgnmRxT3/
At around 560 US$, I think it'd be a valid candidate for further falling prices, base may be around 150 - 200 US$.
https://de.tradingview.com/chart/FgnmRxT3/
Reflecting upon the performance of the S&P 500 and the fact that all-time great Warren Buffett is a long term bull for the US economy and thus its stock market - remembering that stock prices can be considered a collective judgement on future earnings of the companies that make up the index by market participants - the S&P 500 rose around 15-fold between 1970 and 2000. I've taken the lows from the financial crisis in 2009, multiplied it by 15 and it may be that we'll see the S&P 500 around 10,000 in 2039 / 2040.
Here's the chart.
Here's the chart.
In my native Germany, carmaker's BMW shareprice looks as if it's ready to drop into the 65 - 70 € range, currently trading at around 79.30 € . I think 85 € would be a smart Stop Loss level.
Long-term resistance has been broken on the downside significantly. If possible depending upon the shorting fee brokers charge for short-selling the shares, I'd initiate a short right now.
This is the chart
Long-term resistance has been broken on the downside significantly. If possible depending upon the shorting fee brokers charge for short-selling the shares, I'd initiate a short right now.
This is the chart
Lost what ? No such thing as a "lost decade" - the term refers to the timespan 01/2000 - 12/2009 where the S&P 500 lost around 1% per year - for the Medallion fund. This has to be the most successful fund in the history of mankind, it is not known for sure however how much net gains RenTech has generated since inception as the firm does not want to publish this information. Sadly, the still publicly availabe Renaissance institutional equities fund has performed far worse, with a meager 10 year track record barely beating the S&P 500.
URL / Source of info is this website, https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/how-jim-simons-made-66-a-year-by-using-quant-strategies/
URL / Source of info is this website, https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/how-jim-simons-made-66-a-year-by-using-quant-strategies/
Many so-so setups and losing setups I posted.
The only big winner would have been my long setup in Natural Gas from last year, it now trades @ 5.48 - a clear upward trend and I think it may hit 6 US$ or even more within the next 6 months.
Shows the nature of trendfollowing, with a little luck a trader can catch a big upward or downward swing, an upward swing being for obvious reasons potentially more rewarding and make up for many hopefully small losses.
The only big winner would have been my long setup in Natural Gas from last year, it now trades @ 5.48 - a clear upward trend and I think it may hit 6 US$ or even more within the next 6 months.
Shows the nature of trendfollowing, with a little luck a trader can catch a big upward or downward swing, an upward swing being for obvious reasons potentially more rewarding and make up for many hopefully small losses.
Last month of the year 2021, it may be my last setup this year. I think Oil (OIL_BRENT on TradingView) may now be in long mode again, the support line may hold.
Could rally to 80 US$ or even higher. SL I'd place at 67 US$.
Could rally to 80 US$ or even higher. SL I'd place at 67 US$.
Incredible volatility in Bitcoin (BTCUSD), but so far it has shown incredible resilience . I do think a careful short maybe worth a try here, but the SL would have to be wide - I'd place it at around 65,000 , the current price is around 47,000 US$.
Profittarget I'd put @ 15,000 US$ . I would only risk 1% or less of my equity on this trade .
Profittarget I'd put @ 15,000 US$ . I would only risk 1% or less of my equity on this trade .