Search results

  1. tommcginnis

    Carbon Credits

    A couple of thoughts: as far as the effort to produce it and to light it, the incandescent bulb freed us from an *ungodly* amount of work and filth, to produce the light (and heat!) that it provided -- to allow us to continue on with human-productive activities JUST ONE HUNDRED years ago...
  2. tommcginnis

    Carbon Credits

    Hmmmmm. "In reverse order!" Okay, then. The issue with the popular term Acid Rain was not any sort of "reality" about it, but the idea that it was *rain* that was the issue: acid deposition happens 24 hours a day, whether it's raining or not. At certain times, bodies of air would pause, cool...
  3. tommcginnis

    Carbon Credits

    QUOTE="DallasCowboysFan]Emissions are always going to be produced because something has to occur at the source, whether it is more coal being fed into a boiler or more uranium being being produced at a nuclear power plant. ### Unless of course it comes from photovoltaic or wind, or even bio...
  4. tommcginnis

    when is this market going to top?

    To be clear, you have defined nothing.
  5. tommcginnis

    Carbon Credits

    "Now, if we could onnnnnn-lyy figure out how to combine pollution-free energy capture with an automobile...... That would be somet'in', wouldn't it???"
  6. tommcginnis

    Carbon Credits

    Not quite. *Humorous*, but not quite. In the big, bad, world of air pollution, the Big 3 baddies are particulates, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides. (Yes, we just discounted C and Hg. Bare with me.) In assessing the costs of controlling these things on the general public, the question goes to...
  7. tommcginnis

    Are some sentiment indicators just a glorified version of stochastics?

    This is wrong on its face. Non-starter.
  8. tommcginnis

    when is this market going to top?

    Okay, well, that might be a fine *example*, but it could be an example of anything. A definition involves not pointing into the parking lot and saying, "Look! There! My car!" but providing year, make, model, color, license plate (who knows these things?), and maybe "There's a Grateful Dead/'72...
  9. tommcginnis

    Are patterns legit?

    Post-hoc analysis is..... post hoc.
  10. tommcginnis

    Are patterns legit?

    Dude -- you get a free pass on this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slope but if you don't know this shit down cold, Mr. Market will drink your milkshake.
  11. tommcginnis

    Are patterns legit?

    The angle you write of is entirely an artifact of your screen size, your timeframe, and even the detail in your price data. To wit, you can kill, *or*create*, a 45° line, any ol' time you want. If you wish to salvage the thought, consider this: mathematically, a 45° line is a slope of +1. This...
  12. tommcginnis

    Are Standard Deviation based stops, one of the best stops?

    Not sure what you mean by "out of sync" (whether σ out-of-sync with ATR, or whether σ & ATR out-of-sync with the underlying) but once the look-back is lined up, they will behave nearly identically. But for shorter duration, the ATR will tell you more clearly *what*just*happened* (so I favor it...
  13. tommcginnis

    Carbon Credits

    Too far off base? Yes. Pollution laws were first based on amount: STOP. Then the Command&Control regime pushed a given technology: DO THIS. Multiple top-flight economists designed policies and wrote papers to argue and demonstrate that putting a price on pollution -- *internalizing* an external...
  14. tommcginnis

    Are patterns legit?

    "Patterns" are, in fact, a fiction -- there is nothing special about them -- 50day SMAs do not "bounce off" 200day SMAs, etc etc. BUT, there is also the very definite, very empirical, rudely robust idea of herd behavior, or more mathematically, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quorum_sensing and...
  15. tommcginnis

    when is this market going to top?

    What was it three months ago?? Certainly, *that* would be (another!) great time to short. Oh. Eh. Wait a sec...... "Them as call for a drop, are welcome to sell the top. But when wishes are horses and beggars will ride, they'll be ridin *your* ass til it flops."
  16. tommcginnis

    Are Standard Deviation based stops, one of the best stops?

    Fair enough question, but the OP posed a σ versus ATR question. With either metric, "shit [can] happen" -- but it's more of a {worthy} Kelly/Tharp question... I have always relied on "42".....
  17. tommcginnis

    when is this market going to top?

    Except that 1) Inflation be low low low (despite *approaching* 2%, it's still historically, low low low). Thus, "26" is not unexpected. 2) Earnings of Q4 -- *reputed* to be over "The Earnings Recession" actually *have* done enough to validate/keep prior period growth in P/E. 3) KNOWN, coming...
  18. tommcginnis

    when is this market going to top?

    We'd need a structural problem -- we'd have to have negative wage movement sufficient to impact domestic consumer spending -- in essence, Great Recession II. We *suck* on low wages, but the screw-turners of $30/hr fame are (mostly) gone.
  19. tommcginnis

    when is this market going to top?

    Define "top".......otherwise, ... not much to talk about. (Not to be a wet blanket or anything.)
  20. tommcginnis

    Are Standard Deviation based stops, one of the best stops?

    Volatility (a particular measure of a standard deviation calculation) and Average True Range are both creatures of the very same price history, and are both equally responsive. If you want to prove this to yourself, tweak ATRs and Bollinger Bands for a bit.
Back
Top