when is this market going to top?

trdes said:
Not sure if this was really a question like wondering when it will actually top or just more of a social thread for conversation about it, but felt like commenting on this.

Also to be clear, I am not knocking it out of the park myself yet, so not criticizing any strategy or this post, just merely throwing my 2 cents.


You really have three options for trading(if you actually want to make consistent money, also not speaking of investing here):

#1 You have an edge based on math that is consistent, clearly defined perimeters, works in a live environment and has been back tested for many years to account for draw downs, odd events, win rate, profit factor and etc.

In this case asking when it will top you don't really care. You trade what comes, not what you want.

#2 You're a rare breed who is strong emotionally and can just read pure price action well.

in this case, same thing you're not guessing when it tops, you're trading what you see.


#3 You have a large account versus what you're trying to earn and just use time and averaging down to turn a profit. There's various levels of this that range from arguably good to decent, to as bad as you can get.

If you've chosen this strategy you've already answered your own question, which is you don't know when it will top, you're just using likely a lot weaker less refined version of probability than #1 and hoping there's no big moves against you that do a lot of damage prior to being in profit.
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Excellent!
You have well-understood the rules, which is not so common here!
I will add :
#4 You don't know the rules and want to go against the trend/market until you lose all.

CM
 
when is this market going to top?

1. When your broker says "This could be your last chance to buy at these prices".
2. When the cleaning lady asks you to recommend a stock.
3. When CNN says "We told you so".
4. When the Newbie ratio reaches an all time high on ET.
 
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murray t turtle said:
%%
OCT 2007, month SPY candles; or use 200 dma. Citigroup has made an even better top on 10 year chart; but rising tide could lift anything.
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Okay, well, that might be a fine *example*, but it could be an example of anything. A definition involves not pointing into the parking lot and saying, "Look! There! My car!" but providing year, make, model, color, license plate (who knows these things?), and maybe "There's a Grateful Dead/'72 sticker on the back right bumper...."
 
tommcginnis said:
Okay, well, that might be a fine *example*, but it could be an example of anything. A definition involves not pointing into the parking lot and saying, "Look! There! My car!" but providing year, make, model, color, license plate (who knows these things?), and maybe "There's a Grateful Dead/'72 sticker on the back right bumper...."
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Very deep.
Sage.
... went right over my head. ;)
But I know there was something there.
 
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