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Holy mackerel !!!! When I glanced earlier it was exactly that (1.2715) .. and I thought .. oh, well - fine, there was an upside bias. But now !!! <font size=+3>1.2788 !!!!!!!</font>

I was wondering how discretionary you are trading your system, it was partly to trya and understand if you can do any backtesting on your system. If you can't backtest, then simulation is the only way until it sits well and "perfect" (as good as it gets) in execution. I understand that...

I guess your system has a fair amount of discretionary triggers, so there will always be room for "operator error" ? I am almost all discretionary - trading after fairly complex mix of signals, or just "when I feel like it". I call it discretionary, although if I got identified and modelled...

Yes, after the RTH started there was only one ("trending") direction on the EuroFx.

I admit that these high levels just before the US presidential election could give a huge slide back ... but with the oil prices as one of the catalysts I think we need to consider how far a possible oil-pullback could go. On the other hand - market additions like corporate hedgers etc. might...

I have some money on the upwards direction, although it's just my € funded equity. :) I think we're close to the highs of the day, so that kind of reinforces my impression of the grinding upwards - although we could also call it a range since it's not exactly new highs ... yet. :cool:

Seems the slow "grinding trending" is exactly what we were seeing, but it could turn into more of a range towards the end, although resistance above is very thin.

Looked through your posts, and was wondering why you don't post stops anymore - like you used to ? And are all your posts (close to) real-time ? I was thinking about your entry after that ~100 lot went on 1.2633 ... where would you be stopped out ? It's back on 1.2634 now -- but that's a bit...

Also, seeing the flow of comments on other USD-pairs from Thomson it could be crosses that weighs in towards the close too. USDCAD sliding e.g.

Yes, after the european close and then the lunch hours and an unwinding friday .. taken the latest fridays - I guess it won't make any big moves, if it does ... I don't care much. :) We have all have slightly different triggers for trading, but I prefer playing with my 2 year old son right...

Actually, a good method of "winding down" might be posting on ET after a trade ... it at least keeps one out of the market a little. :D With regards to my last scalp: round numbers are very predictable sometimes. :p (depends on market conditions, of course) Yes, another "mini-pattern"...

from Thomson / www.ifrmarkets.com : [15:05 EUR/USD: Talk Of Fining Buys and high oil Prices Lift Prices] New York, October 22: Oil prices have surged to a fresh high at $55.35 and that is again weighing on the Dollar. Rumors of fixing buying of the EUR against both the JPY and USD have been...

Ok, you obviously have tested this for these specific pairs (EURUSD-EuroFX vs S&P500-ES), but in general I would think there is no great correleation between currencies and stock markets. You don't mention a timeframe on this, but looking at big timeframes with € at around 1.29 at years end ...

I thought currencies were one of those things that were COMPLETELY independent of equities/stocks ... ? :)

What I saw a lot of yesterday was that they capped the price a little, then jumped "further back" in the orderbook - overtaking the smaller size .. but of course spot moves there too - so it could be a question about who has the quotes first. Things that seem simultaneous to me might be...

Thomson also reports a € 1bn plain vanilla call option rolling off on monday, and exotic barriers at same level, with some exotic triggers at 1.2675, 12700 and 1.2705.

If you look at the book, look how they let a larger lot be at the best bid/ask with smaller size behind and then larger again behind the small ones ... also they "cycle" their orders to see - this shows how many smaller ones are at those levels. When they hav a larger order ahead of smaller...

Yup, addict allright. I continue to knock myself on the head for the stupid trading this morning; waking up with my 2 1/2 year old son - playing a little, then barely able to watch what's happening starting to trade after a brief look at charts. As you can probably guess I'm not a good...

Small stops reported around 1.2580 now by Thomson. They also report that significant selling out of Dublin in the mid 1.2620s made little impact. Offers through the 1.2650 level and stops above. Wonder if those offers might retreat somewhat if we pass 1.2640 again - with some conviction. I...

Hehe, I think almost everyone overtraded ... it was a heck of a ride. I gave back more 15 ticks, but then I got seriously pissed off. I couldn't resist trying to get back, and was angry because I didn't concentrate - I was entering trades indiscriminately because of the "numbness" of sleep...