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Coming from the gym, I saw these 4 dudes on horses, dressed in black. Wonder what's that all about?

So you long S&P 500 with a leverage? :P

For what it's worth, I use a ton of alt data vendors (paying over a 50k a year for the feeds), but I have declined to use even more. These are guys that come and claim to have actual predictive power based on X non-market data (text mining, cookies from sites etc). In terms of research, the...

It's for the bond futures and interest rate products, not for equities. Pretty much every CB out there holds US dollars and many use synthetic cash to term conversion via futures. First of all, most probably NOTHING will happen. In their top holding by cash value (AAPL), they own less than a...

Not true. If you are trading assets (as opposed to derivatives or commodities), it's not a zero sum game. It is, however, a zero sum game with respect to the total market (in absence of transaction costs). E.g. if the US stock market has grown 10% in the last month, some traders had outperformed...

To be honest, you are fighting an uphill battle. First of all, fewer and fewer people on both sell side and buy side are looking at technical analysis. primarily because the new generation of traders does not believe in it. Most technical analysis aficionados have already retired and people...

Why would you think I don't like your style? I was merely pointing out that even though you put in a lot of work into your strategy, you had a lot of lucky turns along the way. In a sense, but on the other hand, a lot of your decisions are forced by various random events. You can think of it...

Are you trading that strategy live? In that case, you are lucky that you (a) happen to be born in the US or another western country that has developed markets (b) were born with enough intellectual ability and family background to get an education (c) picked the education path that gave you...

If anything, randomness is 90% and "hard work" is 10%. Of course, it's nice to think the opposite and feel in control of your life. Luck matters from the very day you're born (were you born in a rich country? were you born to rich parents? are you genetically gifted?) and it continues from...

Maybe I am confused, but a roll is a pnl-neutral (mostly) event. Are you looking at synthetic futures return series or you actually are looking at something else?

Oh my G-d, they (i.e. exchange conglomerate) are so full of shit!

Do you live in the NYC? Cause I do and I can certainly see both sides of the argument. As I said, the moral hazard aspect was the scariest component from my perspective.

Why would you do that? You have market prices, how is a closed position different from an open position?

Sadly, same has been said about the Russians. I hope you realize that this is just a stupid stereotype, just like the crap that American women don't like sex, only Belgians make good beer (partly true, I have to admit) etc. See more here, for example...

What you should do is look at periodic returns (daily, weekly, monthly, whatever you think is applicable), calculate the Sharpe ratio for that return periodicity and then rescale it to the annualized form. E.g. if you have daily data annualized_sharpe_ratio = sqrt(252) *...

It's not nearly as clear as it was said in the article. There are good things and bad things about what happened. On one hand, the numbers did not add up and, more importantly, it created a massive moral hazard issue. Other large tech companies (e.g. Google) have moved to the NYC without the...

Plenty of the producers are not happy either (e.g. Russia, Venezuela, Iran) but it would take a serious shift (like the US f*cking other countries over more than usual). Also, there is a common conspiracy theory (with some snippets of evidence) that any one country that wants to sell its oil for...

Not to question their credibility, but... (a) they also have a section dedicated to JFK Conspiracy :D right here: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/jfk-conspiracy-silver-or-vietnam/ (b) they have a section on economic confidence model from 6000 bc to 2072...

Okay, fine, I'll play. Let's imagine that we get a serious disaster, like a disorderly default of DB. My thinking is that it's not going to be the derivatives exposure that will take the house down, but rather the freeze in the short-term credit markets.

We are not unwinding an existing position, we were adding. I was simply giving an example of an increase in notional that actually reduces the counterparty risk. The only statement I am making (for the 3rd time now) is that using the notional amount to gauge risk is wrong. We can get into the...