reminds me of the story of free seminars, where mickey left his vallet at home to avoid this :
Is Luck Subjective ?
- Thread starter Stockolio
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reminds me of the story of free seminars, where mickey left his vallet at home to avoid this :
Many of the richest traders attribute luck as being a factor in their success. James Simons is the most scientific of the bunch, yet in his interviews try counting how many times he speaks about his good luck in making his fortune.
As traders we try to remove luck from our trades, so the concept of it ruffles many. I sure believe that at the end of the day luck sure play a role, not on any series of trades, but the other factors beyond or control.
"I would rather be lucky than good"
As traders we try to remove luck from our trades, so the concept of it ruffles many. I sure believe that at the end of the day luck sure play a role, not on any series of trades, but the other factors beyond or control.
"I would rather be lucky than good"
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Yes; i bought that James book also,[never heard of mr Simmons ] but enjoyed Top Traders by Schwager. True, his name has wager in it; but that does not mean i'm going back to pool halls LOL.Actually i would rather be skilled+ profitable than fast, or ''lucky ''......
If anything, randomness is 90% and "hard work" is 10%. Of course, it's nice to think the opposite and feel in control of your life.
Luck matters from the very day you're born (were you born in a rich country? were you born to rich parents? are you genetically gifted?) and it continues from there on (did you pick a field that matches your abilities? did you have the right teachers? did you have the right first boss?). That's "objective luck". Most of the arguments to the contrary (usually framed as "but look at X, he/she blah blah blah") are due to the selection bias.
The study highlights the fact that through our lives, we have random events that can be looked-at as subjectively as lucky or unlucky. By no means it denies the fact that most of path through life is determined by the objective randomness more than anything else.
Whether it is luck or good back testing or just showing up, my automation takes approx. 70 trades a day and 0-3 of the runners makes more than 3 ticks. I think smaller percentage eventually develop good pattern recognition skills whether just doing life activities or trading, and eventually our hard work pays more than the norm we expect, they are small gifts beyond the norm.
Perhaps we all confuse luck at some point in our lives with just showing up and doing our jobs or outside activities. If it was truly luck, we picking up some lottery ticket that wind blew to our doorstep and won half billion dollars.
Any luck we might have, I think by doing positive steps caused it to lean in our direction.
Perhaps we all confuse luck at some point in our lives with just showing up and doing our jobs or outside activities. If it was truly luck, we picking up some lottery ticket that wind blew to our doorstep and won half billion dollars.
Any luck we might have, I think by doing positive steps caused it to lean in our direction.
Are you trading that strategy live? In that case, you are lucky that you
(a) happen to be born in the US or another western country that has developed markets
(b) were born with enough intellectual ability and family background to get an education
(c) picked the education path that gave you technology skills to build this
(d) had the path in life that gave you access to enough capital to trade this strategy
That's just a partial list. Now, change just one of these variables - let's imagine that you were born in a Nepalese village instead of the US, do you think you'd be here boasting of your achievements?
This is cringe worthy typing but... I agree with you on lottery of birth. Generally speaking, your life comes down to your decisions. You change the way you make decisions, you change your life
When Tara Cooper hit five out of six numbers in the lottery, practically everyone thought she was lucky to do so. But when she missed one out of six numbers in the lottery, that was universally judged to be bad luck, even though, of course, it was the identical event
Not a lucky day for Kraft?
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I agree with about 95% or 99% of that.NOT the luck last line or the 70 trades a day LOL. But good post.Like John [DrawdonWs] Henry said what you call luck, i call a small sample.But i dont like his big drawdowns, so i may or may not not may as much money as he did.But i'm sure his small [Boston Globe]circulation newspaper pays off for some.
As far as accidental birth location, location, location; OK i see the points.But even there, my banker dad said ''son ;accidents dont just[random] happen-they are caused''
(a) Was born in USA
(b) I was first to be degreed, came from blue collar family and who were never thrilled with me as I am odd human.
(c) actually had programmers build software as too many brain surgeries and procedures in 2010 fucked up my abilities to program and photo memory, cost one does to stay alive.
(d) My life is most different than most, I have no social life unless forced cause of businesses I have started or charities I am involved, I rather stay in a cave that keep me away from people cause frankly I don't understand mankind. If I was born in Nepalese village, I doubt they would volunteer their time and funds to build homes outside of their village, buy food and meds/dental and expect nothing in return and prefer no gratitude. Don't recommend I see psychiatrist, seen decades of them, I have Asperger's, no cure for this either.
(e) I am also an Army disabled veteran who passed on taking monies.
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