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More bad sushi for the Eurozone. Eurostat's numbers for Greece were bad, but they also had bad numbers for the most of the rest of the member states. 80 pips straight down along with all European equity markets turning red after Eurostat's press release...

Scale in and scale out. I like holding positions for a longish amount of time; I've recently started to trade around a core position -causing me to scale in and out in the same week. I don't hold a larger position than makes me comfortable. Once I've scaled in and am comfortably in the...

No worries; the written word is often misstated/misinterpreted. I do it all the time. :)

Cambist, I read it and was looking for posts from others. I didn't think about specifically mentioning you in my post - perhaps it should have read, "Any Euro bulls out there who want to state their reasons other than that previously stated by Cambist."

Bond spreads continue to blow out, as Greek-German 10 year spreads reached 529 basis points today, a new post-EU record. Portugal and Ireland continue to have their CDS rates rise and now Spain is starting to have the same rising rates. It feels very close to a Crossing the Rubicon moment...

Clambill, if you're looking for a currency-related currency play, I'd think that the NOK (Norwegian Kroner) would be a cleaner play than the CAD. Update on Greek 13 week bond auction. All things considered, it wasn't bad. 3.65% (vice 1.67% in Jan) and a bid to cover ratio of 4.61 (vice 3.23...

Here's a good article on various possibilities due to the volcanic eruptions: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/04/15/world/europe/airport-closings-graphic.html Don't discount scenario 3; I expect this to go down as a scenario 2 followed by 3. If Katla blows, that's likely scenario 3.

Depending on how violent Katla erupts (if it erupts), there could be loss of agricultural crops and livestock in Europe along with some loss of life. I don't think that it could blow tomorrow, but it's possible for it to blow within the next couple of years.

Icelandic volcanoes have a tendency to be multimonth events - it's beyond my knowledge in the field to explain to you why. And when Eyjafjallajokul has erupted in the past, Katla has also erupted. http://www.care2.com/news/member/374694206/1464485...

I just found that there are some tremors at Hekla and Katla. http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html That ain't good; it indicates magma movement. This could be far from over ... Iceland's volcanic history is one of long lasting activity prior to returning to dormancy. I may...

Thank you very much for explaining your logic ... it's always good to hear why someone's taking the opposite side of your trade. I completely agree with you about the problems in the US. I am concerned about states and municipalities as they are running huge deficits and don't have the...

Cambist, I understand that you're looking at the technicals but I'd keep the fundamentals in mind here. Wait until it appears that the Icelandic eruptions have ended before you get bullish on the EUR. If Katla starts erupting, this will get much worse. Here's a good wiki page on Laki's (not...

Classic! I'm stealing that one.

Clambill, more than air transport, this volcanic ash has the potential to destroy Europe's agricultural/farm industry for several years. Longer term, the nutrients are good for the soil. Short term, I think that they're screwed. The volcanic ash will also cause global cooling. It'll be...

Yes, I'm a pilot. Haven't flown for quite a while tho. I left active duty Air Force to fly for United in 2000. Needless to say, that hasn't worked out so well and I got furloughed from United again in April 2009 (second time, first time was 5 years). Good thing I didn't quit my 'part time'...

If you were to buy GS, consider also buying puts to hedge yourself. The wheels could come off of GS rather quickly.

A quick update on the Greek/German 10 year bond spread. It's now at 425 basis points. Article: http://www.ana.gr/anaweb/user/showplain?maindoc=8624059&service=142 The spread continues to widen indicating that the bond market thinks that the default risk in Greek bonds continues to increase...

Clambill, thanks. I just don't have the time right now for learning the rule of technical trading - all of my spare time is currently spent on reviewing raw economic data that I use to form opionions based on fundamentals. I constantly recheck the latest economic information to make sure that...

NiN, Cambist, thanks for the words. I'm a refugee from another financial forum - the owner opted to make it a pay site for 16 hrs/day (5A-9P EDT) and my fear that many of the good posters would leave is starting to come true. As a result, I wandered around the 'net and ended up here; the...

Uexkell, all valid points. It's interesting that Merkel has yet to publicly confirm that she's backing the bailout plan. Here's an article about German sentiment in this matter; take it for what it's worth: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/9030814 But I think that you're...