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No problem, I appreciate your point of view. >Yes that is how I would have seen this in real time. Okay but my question was did you? Anyway, I just think that price action was terrible for a short. We have a breakout on increasing volume forming a point 3 up on a slower fractal... Of...

Hi, Sorry but I still don't get it or the answers are not clear at all. My red channel is a valid downchannel isn't it? It has a point 1, a point 2 and a point 3? It is broken on increasing black volume and we are not getting a point 3 up but instead a point 3 down. Wtf indeed Icarus...

Several laterals can be drawn (attached) but at this moment I don't see a differrence. Considering your answer I think that my black point 3 is not a point 3. However, the break of it (on incr red volume) currently is the only way to explain why the sequence was not completed when we saw...

Thank you for your answer. I re-annotated some stuff. Is this how things should be seen? regards, Ivo

Well, did you really see it like this realtime? You honestly saw change (to short) even before the pennant was broken and did not expect a point 3 up? I agree (of course) 11:55 is a point 1 and 14:40 a point 3 and then it is broken but my point is the following: - we have a downchannel. -...

Agreed. That makes 14:55 (your chart) a fbo. regards, Ivo

Sorry. I completely fail to get this. If 14.45 is pt3 up then what is point 1 and point 2? Followed by a peak volume signal? In that case we can call any breakout on increasing volume peak volume and a signal for change right? If anything means continuation (of the new trend) then it is a...

Hello, YM made a confirmed point 3 up at that moment and it was quickly broken on increasing red. This is unlike the example you refer to, but it is indeed a strong sell signal and it told me to be alert for a pennant BO (on the ES) to the downside, which did happen indeed. All fine, but...

Hello, I know I have to fan. Just wanted to show the channel of the moment of BO. I don't share your opinion. Point 3 is at 14:15 and increasing red at the same bar + next 2 bars as well as 14:45. regards, Ivo

anyone? <IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2034416">

"We could have lost a few hundred million which would have been perfectly acceptable" Awesome. Ivo

Well, I assume that a retrace means that the original trend is still intact right? (in other words we still expect a point 3) There are 3 situations where the original trend remains intact but you get increasing volume in the direction against the original trend: steeper RTL break, Lateral...

Come on. It was a live chat and you know I cannot attach chart or indicate a reference time. All I am saying is that we can expect a point 3 up or down but it just doesn't happen even though the market gives you all reasons to believe it would happen. That doesn't just happen to me, it...

A retrace on increasing volume? Well, now picture the following not completely uncommon scenario. First 2-3 bars of the day we go up on increasing volume. Next bars price goes down on increasing red volume taking out the open and continuing down. So where is the point three...

Well you have seen many more charts than me so I am open to learn. How can you actually know for sure that something will not happen at some moment? All it requires is suddenly many buyers or sellers coming in. How do you know this won't happen? I agree that if it does happen the...

Hi, So you say a tape on increasing volume cannot be followed by a tape on increasing volume in the opposite direction? I don't have to look back very much to see examples of this. Just enter on point 1 and wait for point 3 blindly and you get killed big time. You need to monitor very...

I disagree completely with this. (that it cannot be a reversal) Anything can happen. Anytime. To be absolutely sure there will be a point 3 is predicting. How do you know some news (or whatever) doesn't come out at some moment destroying your complete perfect picture. It happens. You...

Waiting for more than 2 hours for a good opportunity. You got excellent discipline mr Black. regards, Ivo

I also had big problems with this Littlemac, lost 2.75 points there. 2 bars before your marked bar (red vertical line) we had a fbo. (I went long, closing prices lining up etc, all lights green). The next bar it was red but price closed within the previous bar. Sure, one bar later we had a...

Hi, 20:05 (on your chart) you went short. Why did you hold after that despite increasing black volume? I do realise that price came out of a lateral (I added the yellow lines) so it doesn't have to mean the trend changed but I'd say that at some point (when you notice price does not fall...