Iterative Refinement

[romanus]

Quote from Tums:

There is context to everything; the readers should have access to those context.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1776346#post1776346

 

[romanus]

Quote from nkhoi:

you forgot one variable, he's several months older now.

You mean, you too get the strange feeling that he's taken this where nobody has ever been before (except may be for JH)

Technically, since we are all looking at the same charts, it may be possible for somebody else as well ...

 

[ivob]

Quote from ehorn:

Hi Ivo,

Not sure if this is a question or statement, but it is quite possible to form a retrace on increasing volume.

Well, I assume that a retrace means that the original trend is still intact right? (in other words we still expect a point 3)

There are 3 situations where the original trend remains intact but you get increasing volume in the direction against the original trend: steeper RTL break, Lateral break or spike bar.

Any other situation of increasing volume against the original trend I would consider a reversal. (I would rotate my point 2 and make it a point 1 for the other direction).

Maybe others wait for RTL break first before calling it a reversal. I'd like to hear opinions of others about this.

Quote from ehorn:

Your scenario is quite common. But what your are describing (assuming it is not HVS) is the market 'syncing' and seeking to establish the 1st dominant traverse for the day. So where is the PT3 you ask. It has yet to be established as price is currently moving from PT1-PT2 on the dominant traverse (down).

My example involved the start of the day only because it was easy to explain but it might as well happen somewhere else in the day.

regards,
Ivo

 

[romanus]

Quote from ivob:

There are 3 situations where the original trend remains intact but you get increasing volume in the direction against the original trend: steeper RTL break, Lateral break or spike bar.

Any other situation of increasing volume against the original trend I would consider a reversal. (I would rotate my point 2 and make it a point 1 for the other direction).

Here's an exception - bar 1455 eob. The chart is a result of multiple feedback comments from Avi 8 and Spydertrader.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2014779

 

[romanus]

Here's another example of what wasn't that. I am curious - those who do trade end of bar, do these situations result in a loss usually?
In this particular case the lateral formation and increased black volume BO make it even more complicated IMO, because only +PRV on 1335 eob says no pt3 down. That's a 2 pt loss easily.

 

[Jander]

Quote from romanus:

Here's another example of what wasn't that. I am curious - those who do trade end of bar, do these situations result in a loss usually?
In this particular case the lateral formation and increased black volume BO make it even more complicated IMO, because only +PRV on 1335 eob says no pt3 down. That's a 2 pt loss easily.

Where would the entry be, that you are saying would lose 2 pts?

 

[romanus]

Quote from Jander:

Where would the entry be, that you are saying would lose 2 pts?

1305 eob IBGS Jokari Window change confirms fanned out pt3 up traverse and ends it. After forming a SYM there's RTL BO on increased volume, with more increased volume after SYM break to confirm that the trend has changed.

 

[Jander]

Quote from romanus:

1305 eob IBGS Jokari Window change confirms fanned out pt3 up traverse and ends it. After forming a SYM there's RTL BO on increased volume, with more increased volume after SYM break to confirm that the trend has changed.

What if the change signal was at 12:50? Making 13:05 a pt 3 down? Doesnt 12:55 break the 'current' RTL on Incr. volume, why would you fan?

Did you rule out a channel with pt1 at 12:15, pt2 at 12:45, pt3 at 13:25 ?

 

[romanus]

Quote from Jander:

What if the change signal was at 12:50? Making 13:05 a pt 3 down? Doesnt 12:55 break the 'current' RTL on Incr. volume, why would you fan?

Did you rule out a channel with pt1 at 12:15, pt2 at 12:45, pt3 at 13:25 ?

Because 1245 eob is continuation (Jokari Window) and 1255 eob increasing red volume results from lateral formation BO and has no more increased red volume on the following bar.

 

[romanus]

Quote from Jander:

... why would you fan?

Why wouldn't you fan here?