Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
... several days - try several weeks!Well, did you really see it like this realtime? You honestly saw change (to short) even before the pennant was broken and did not expect a point 3 up?
I agree (of course) 11:55 is a point 1 and 14:40 a point 3 and then it is broken but my point is the following:
- we have a downchannel.
- it is broken clearly on increasing black volume. (no lateral break, no spike bar, no steeper channel break)
- We do not get a point 3 up after that.
Do you think this cannot happen if we haven't had a lower low before during the same day (making pt1)? Of course it can.
These three points above are all facts. So when you say: "There will always be a point three" it is necessary to specify when because it clearly is not always the case if a channel is broken on increasing volume. That is a fact because we all saw it. Imo this comes very close to: Anything can happen.
The best I can come up with is:
- We BO'ed on increasing black.
- So we expect a point 3 up.
- We get a pennant. All fine.
- Pennant is broken on (a lot of / too much) increasing red volume.
- Something unexpected happened. The pennant break created a point 3 down of a wider channel. We do not expect pt3 up anymore.
Reasoning like this you wouldn't have lost a lot providing you caught the move up at point 1. (14:40). However, that is not my point. My point is we do not always get a point 3 after a channel break on increasing volume.
regards,
Ivo
This isn't even close.
The sequences required to complete either a channel or a Traverse had yet to reach completion. As such, no permission to seek a mode change existed.
Obviously, you do think they reached completion.
In other words, you must have annotated your chart incorrectly.
Here's a hint.
What everyone considers a channel for today, really shows a super channel.
Three Traverses in the morning (all lateral)
Three Traverses Midday (Up, lateral, Up)
Three Traverses in the Afternoon (Down, Lateral, Down)
And another Lateral to end the day.
- Spydertrader
Bi9foot, I just ran into a snag. If we annotate the steeper down Traverse with P3 at 14:00 (pink on your chart), then 14:10 becomes an FTT and a Traverse-level change signal. But as Spydertrader noted here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...al+and+traverse+change+and+signal#post2030111
A Traverse Level Signal for change occurs where one needs to reverse - not where one needs to hold.
Since we are supposed to hold through a Lateral Traverse, my understanding is that a Traverse-level change signal won't occur at the end of a dominant Traverse which precedes a non-dominant Lateral Traverse. If this is true, then the 14:10 bar cannot be followed by a Lateral Traverse. Furthermore, there is no subsequent Traverse-level change signal to the downside, except for the IRV as it exits the Lateral. Hmm...
No it isn't.
- Spydertrader
It would be helpful to know whether those who saw my posts a few hours ago a) are not able to answer unequivocally that the gray lines are a traverse or not or b) unwilling to do so.
I almost feel like some here think I'm posting something so simple that I must be doing this out of spite or something. I assure you all it is not. I'm looking for a concrete starting point to build off of and don't want to make any false assumptions.
More and more it appears that long time adherents to this method are missing a solid foundation to build on. I don't want to make this same error.
EIther those gray lines are a traverse or they are not. Mr Black, Callmate, Tums? Can not one of you state with certainty if it's a traverse or not?
I almost feel like some here think I'm posting something so simple that I must be doing this out of spite or something. I assure you all it is not. I'm looking for a concrete starting point to build off of and don't want to make any false assumptions.
More and more it appears that long time adherents to this method are missing a solid foundation to build on. I don't want to make this same error.
EIther those gray lines are a traverse or they are not. Mr Black, Callmate, Tums? Can not one of you state with certainty if it's a traverse or not?