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Very nice. May you please tell how you enter the trade? limit entry or stop entry? thank you very much.

Nice observation. Weekly chart: after that big drop week, in april 2000, tried to reach the top 1574 three times, but all failed by having lower high; 2 week closed below EMA(52) including the big drop week, then a higher low. When the third time closed below EMA(52), the bear market...

Assumption: 02/20/2020 started the the fourth PB in a long term up trend. 02/20/2020 only 2 and 0, very interesting date. just did the following simple analysis, very crude. Gaps are becoming smaller.

this explains why you have been consistently profitable. Great ideas! about 30 signals per week, then one year about 1500 signals, then about 10 years would be about 15000 lines of record. you have a great data set sufficiently large for statistical analysis.

very interesting idea: sweet spot of MFE. You have done o lot of statistical analysis? the link: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/problem-with-trading-1-contract-only.294561/page-5#post-4186017

great point. When has the long bias, just take long entry at the bottom of TR and exit at the top, and skipped SH part. the problem is that when near the bottom of TR, would not want to take long because of the main thinking ----- possibility of break down at that time.

No need to explain the entire trade plan. Thank you for your sharing. I will take a look at your old posts.

If sure it is TR, then if by any reason take the long top entry, then just wait until around the bottom to exit. By the way, i was talking about two entries: long the top entry ; and then short the bottom entry. Now i understood the confusion. Why not trade TR? just buy the bottom half of...

Then X base and 2X base, the PB will be different. How do you analyze it differently? if BO strong, the PB can be very shallow for a long time.

I am not talking about the BO trade. I was talking about TR trading: BLSH. However L and H is relative, and TR is not certain anyway, so possibly buy the high ( top part of TR) and sell low (lower part of TR) . I was talking about the worst case of TR trading. If not worst case, then very...

very true. how would you take advantage of the base holding longer? in other words, how would you trade differently for two cases: a base holder x bars and a base holding 2x bars? thank you.

I think so too. At the same time: day trading today can be very difficult to lose big money if can figure out being TR asap. suppose the worst case: buying the top and short the bottom of the box. then just hold through the heat, and then have chance to get out at the opposite boundary...

put what you wrote on the chart. if BO below strongly the bottom of the box, the 99% one will high likely not hold, if not, the 90% one highly likely will hold.

longer term chart: if going down, we need to have the down blue line first, then down white line, then down magenta line.

clarification: my previous post was about today's chart --- intraday trading.

ES: TR, YM: weak up channel, NQ down ; wait for more information.

Using shorting Vix to hedge ES short positions is a great idea. Then did you flat your shorts around the end of Nov and then short again at early Dec? or just hold ViX shorts? the former seems to be better, if timing ok. Thank you.

maybe we need to get at least certain selling pressure such as another two consecutive daily bear bars or a big daily bear bar before saying only small profits remaining in this up move?

Happy Thanksgiving to All!