Then X base and 2X base, the PB will be different. How do you analyze it differently? if BO strong, the PB can be very shallow for a long time.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
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If sure it is TR, then if by any reason take the long top entry, then just wait until around the bottom to exit.TR? Tricked?
If one wants to succeed day trading ES (and probably other markets also) - it's key to be able to differentiate between various day types AND identify them in real time.
Today is a day where traders anticipating follow through will get burnt badly.
Once in a while ES picks up momentum, but generally, it's a bad idea to go long/short on a breakout. It's much better as @speedo suggests to enter on a pullback.
False breakouts are very, very common on ES. Or at least breakouts with deep pullbacks.
I wonder how many sold the low and bought the high today:
View attachment 217069
As for the rest of the day - I still favour new highs by the Close, but probably not much higher. In fact - it's not unlikely the HOD/LOD is set for today.
Day trading wise it can be a good idea to take the day off.
EDIT: IMHO of course.
By the way, i was talking about two entries: long the top entry ; and then short the bottom entry. Now i understood the confusion.
Why not trade TR? just buy the bottom half of TR and exit at the top half; or short the top half and exit at the bottom half. The key: if can be sure about TR.
I don't have time to explain my entire trade plan although I have in the past. Any breakout can fail, no matter how strong and any pullback can fail no matter how well constructed. I have qualifiers, and if met, I take the trade. Then it works or it doesn't...no big deal either way. More work than don't and I have no idea which will and which won't.
No need to explain the entire trade plan. Thank you for your sharing. I will take a look at your old posts.
The key long entry today was either of the three pushes down which snapped quickly up.
I would not want to short the top of the range today as I have an expectation of higher prices by the Close - as posted earlier. Thus, generally only interested to hold a long on a day like this.
To short a trading range I'd like a lot more speed, volatility and range than we're currently having. The pattern for today is most likely to tick higher on a slow burner into the Close.
There's a slight chance 3312 could be a wortwhile short, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
As of now - there's a double top on the intraday chart. But usually these signals are false in this context.
great point. When has the long bias, just take long entry at the bottom of TR and exit at the top, and skipped SH part. the problem is that when near the bottom of TR, would not want to take long because of the main thinking ----- possibility of break down at that time.The key long entry today was either of the three pushes down which snapped quickly up.
I would not want to short the top of the range today as I have an expectation of higher prices by the Close - as posted earlier. Thus, generally only interested to hold a long on a day like this.
To short a trading range I'd like a lot more speed, volatility and range than we're currently having. The pattern for today is most likely to tick higher on a slow burner into the Close.
There's a slight chance 3312 could be a wortwhile short, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
As of now - there's a double top on the intraday chart. But usually these signals are false in this context.
very interesting idea: sweet spot of MFE. You have done o lot of statistical analysis?
the link: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ng-1-contract-only.294561/page-5#post-4186017
Every week, by day, I track each signal whether taken or not. I enter L or S, Entry Price, Time of Day, type of signal (all variations of pullback), MFE, MAE and W or L and number of ticks for either. For my purposes I consider MFE the distance in ticks the trade goes before either a) It pulls back to form another signal or b) pulls back to take out my original stop. The exercise keeps my in synch with current market action and lets me know if a target/stop adjustment is in order.
this explains why you have been consistently profitable. Great ideas!
about 30 signals per week, then one year about 1500 signals, then about 10 years would be about 15000 lines of record. you have a great data set sufficiently large for statistical analysis.
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