ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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As was my response.
I'm sampling some updated statistical data and the output is interesting.
Basically, my data is saying there's a 99 % chance we won't trade below 3299 today. In fact - there's a 90 % chance we'll close above 3305.
The bad news trading wise is that this today will probably not very worthwhile day trading.
put what you wrote on the chart. if BO below strongly the bottom of the box, the 99% one will high likely not hold, if not, the 90% one highly likely will hold.
I think so too. At the same time: day trading today can be very difficult to lose big money if can figure out being TR asap. suppose the worst case: buying the top and short the bottom of the box. then just hold through the heat, and then have chance to get out at the opposite boundary. The key is how to figure out being TR asap. For a big trending day, if worst case happened---being wrong in the direction and being stubborn, then easy to lose big money.
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very true. how would you take advantage of the base holding longer? in other words, how would you trade differently for two cases: a base holder x bars and a base holding 2x bars? thank you.
I am not a breakout trader so I wait for the break and see if the momentum dynamics support a pullback entry.
TR? Tricked?
If one wants to succeed day trading ES (and probably other markets also) - it's key to be able to differentiate between various day types AND identify them in real time.
Today is a day where traders anticipating follow through will get burnt badly.
Once in a while ES picks up momentum, but generally, it's a bad idea to go long/short on a breakout. It's much better as @speedo suggests to enter on a pullback.
False breakouts are very, very common on ES. Or at least breakouts with deep pullbacks.
I wonder how many sold the low and bought the high today:
As for the rest of the day - I still favour new highs by the Close, but probably not much higher. In fact - it's not unlikely the HOD/LOD is set for today.
Day trading wise it can be a good idea to take the day off.
EDIT: IMHO of course.
TR? Tricked?
If one wants to succeed day trading ES (and probably other markets also) - it's key to be able to differentiate between various day types AND identify them in real time.
Today is a day where traders anticipating follow through will get burnt badly.
Once in a while ES picks up momentum, but generally, it's a bad idea to go long/short on a breakout. It's much better as @speedo suggests to enter on a pullback.
False breakouts are very, very common on ES. Or at least breakouts with deep pullbacks.
I wonder how many sold the low and bought the high today:
View attachment 217069
As for the rest of the day - I still favour new highs by the Close, but probably not much higher. In fact - it's not unlikely the HOD/LOD is set for today.
Day trading wise it can be a good idea to take the day off.
EDIT: IMHO of course.
I am not talking about the BO trade. I was talking about TR trading: BLSH. However L and H is relative, and TR is not certain anyway, so possibly buy the high ( top part of TR) and sell low (lower part of TR) . I was talking about the worst case of TR trading. If not worst case, then very good, very likely making money.
My point:
Big Trend day: easy to make money and easy to lose money if not capable.
TR day: not easy to make money and not easy to lose money either, even not capable..
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